[Vince Ferrer]

true. but that’s not a surprise I would bet on. The libyans are presently in the midst of civil war and they are producing at nearly 100% of capacity. currently the saudis are about the lowest cost producer on the planet.

It is a long shot, but consider that:

-Saudi Arabia doesn't have a lot of friends in the region. Their big buddy, the US, has left.

-They are a Sunni country, but with a large Shiite minority, and that minority is where the oil is, close to Iran.

- ISIS doesn't like them, and will try to destabilize the monarchy.

- Even within Saudi Arabia, the royal family is losing legitimacy.

[ckilmer]

There’s just not enough smoke around in Saudi Arabia to suggest the fire you’re talking about. The gulf states are just too economically dynamic right now to be in any real trouble.

But if oil prices stay down for a couple years. Maybe things will change. But first the Saudis have to burn through about 800 billion dollars in reserves.

After that, anything can happen.