If you look at the long term chart for crude pricing(over 10 years) there was only a very short period where it was over $100. Most of the chart is between $30-$50.
I don't think it is unreasonable to view the charts as you do.
I just don't have much confidence in Saudi Arabia, or any other Muzzie country, to keep the lid on oil prices or anything else that comes bubbling up.
Nor do I think Russia will wait patiently while their economy is completely gutted, not to mention the oil-dependent dictatorships in our own hemisphere.
I am certainly not eager for it, but as was pointed out earlier by another poster, wars are fought over just these kinds of policies, developments and their consequences.