Rubio would certainly win Florida if he were the nominee.
First, he lied to the Tea Party.
Second, he won in 2010, when huge numbers of Black and Democrat Hispanic voters stayed home compared to 2008.
Third, he “won” with 49% of the vote, against two candidates who were conspicuously to his Left.
If Rubio runs for reelection to the Senate in 2016, I think he will win by 1%-2%.
If he runs for president in 2016, I think he will lose Florida by 3%-4%.