Driven by doing nothing? They haven't raised their production levels, that is the US and to a lesser amount, Canada.
Doing nothing in a glut is “doing something” ... :-) ...
You keep saying that they have not raised their production and you are correct. In fact, it is somewhat lower than last year.
However, not only have they not reduced production they have repeatedly released pronouncements to NOT reduce production under any circumstance and loudly announced innervating notices to all who will hear that consumption is down and will go lower when in fact it is the rate of consumption that has moderated and it is still expected to increase but not as fast as previously thought.
Basically, the Saudis are putting gasoline on a fire every time they get a chance.
The whole scenario smells like an agreement between Obama and the Saudis. If so, he’s not so dumb. He achieves:
1) an indirect attack against the frackers, many of whom will go out of business;
2) damaging Russia;
3) damaging Iran;
4) lowering prices at the pump, good for his image;
5) making alternatives look better, even though they largely defy the second law of thermodynamics.
Apparently there is no viable theory on the financial derivative petroleum markets vs. the real physical transfer markets effects on driving price at the pump.