In terms of the Marcellus Shale, do you know the approximate production cost$? Natural Gas now $3.73. Just curious where the cutoff is?
Maintaining current production on existing wells is far cheaper than continued drilling and expansion. Low prices will mean less drilling, but very unlikely to be complete stop.
When natural gas prices plummeted to a 10-year low in 2012, drillers moved rigs from more expensive shale plays to less expensive ones. Even the same shale play can vary. For instance, the Marcellus Shale had spots that offered a good return for producers, even when gas prices slipped below $4 per thousand cubic feet.
http://euanmearns.com/what-is-the-real-cost-of-shale-gas/
What is the real cost of shale gas? “Some wells are profitable at $2.65 per thousand cubic feet, others need $8.10…the median is $4.85,” attributed to Ken Medlock, Senior Director of Rice University’s Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies
http://services.lib.mtu.edu/etd/THESIS/2012/Business%26Economics/duman/thesis.pdf
There are at least three methods that could help increase domestic natural gas demand and include the passing of legislation requiring the use of low-carbon energy sources, the increase in transition from coal to natural gas for electricity generation and the ability to export natural gas from the U.S. While these three methods would help increase demand, there is no guarantee they will come to fruition and consequently shale gas wells should make every effort to increase profitability while decreasing the breakeven price. This concept was best illustrated in the analysis by assuming twenty years of production with no workovers or re-stimulation efforts performed on the well that shows a breakeven price of $2.94 per mcf in 2011.