IEA's Birol Sees Oil Price Rising Near $100 in Coming Years

Rig Zone ^ | December 05, 2014 | Reuters

[thackney]

The chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday he sees oil rising to near $100 a barrel in coming years, some 40 percent above current prices that have been hit by a supply glut and sluggish global growth.

"I think an oil price, which will balance the markets in the next years to come, will be close to $100," Fatih Birol told a conference in Stockholm, when asked to quantify at what level he sees oil prices long-term.

"We shouldn't be blinded with what's happening now. Looking at the geology, looking at the economics of the oil markets, one shouldn't be surprised if we see in a few years' time, again, a rebound of prices," Birol said.

[Democrat_media]

If the governmentS stay out of the way of U.S. oil companies then they can continue to increase US oil production and that will keep the price low below 100 . but that's a big IF

I mean state , local and federal governments allowing “fracking” and more oil drilling and exploration and etc

[Democrat_media]

oil price is in a free fall

i say it will continue falling

Gas is 2.24 here at the Costco

[Iron Munro]

[thackney]

Not the only opinion of course

The Case for $35 a Barrel Oil
http://online.barrons.com/articles/the-case-for-35-a-barrel-oil-1417845920

Oil prices have plunged by $40 a barrel since late June, to about $66 last week. Some say the selloff is overdone, but Steve Briese, writer and publisher of the Bullish Review of Commodity Insiders, says crude’s decline is only three-fifths completed.

Briese (pronounced “breezy”), whose bearish view of oil helped inform our March 31 cover story, “Here Comes $75 Oil,” now projects a low of $35 a barrel, a price last seen in February 2009. Oil fetched more than $100 a barrel when our story was published.

Based on his analysis of the most recent Commitments of Traders report, released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Briese notes that the market’s large speculators, mostly commodity funds, still have a huge long position in futures and options on West Texas Intermediate crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

These funds tend to follow trends, riding bull and bear markets in either direction. Since the price of WTI peaked in late June at $108 a barrel, the funds have liquidated only a quarter of that long position; their sales helped drive the price south.

With three-quarters of the position remaining, further liquidation could take the oil price down another $30. A similar pattern of long liquidation by the funds accompanied the prior plunge in WTI crude to $35, notes Briese, who also predicted that decline, based on similar grounds.

His latest forecast can be viewed as the oil market’s downside risk; it could take awhile before the market bottoms out. The price of Brent crude, which normally sells at a premium of several dollars over WTI, could still come close, over an extended period, to averaging the $60 level that the Saudis reportedly can accept. But more important, as the Barron’s story predicted, a new normal now dominates the oil market, due to tectonic shifts in the forces of supply and demand.

[biff]

Thackney, my newest crystal ball, which has never lied to me, says we will be back to 100 bucks in 6 months. Saudi’s will cave to the other members demands as well as the world economy will improve because of all the worlds central banks providing QE for all.

[SES1066]

While not totally contradictory, this IEA prediction from just last year (12/11/13) does not appear to be doing very well in the light of current supplies & prices;

So it was surprising that the most interesting message in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual World Energy Outlook — considered the gold standard of energy analysis — was also the most disturbing for those who subscribe to the abundance theory: technology and higher prices have opened up new resources but the IEA is concerned that the world could face a ‘future oil supply crunch’ as shale development matures.

IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol noted the positive growth in oil supply documented in the IEA report, but added “this does not mean the world is on the verge of an era of oil abundance”.

[mountainlion]

This guy sounds like a gorebull warming prophet. The only way for expensive oil is for a major economic expansion or total global ban of fracking and US closing all oil production.

[thackney]

The only way? I doubt that

[thackney]

my newest crystal ball

[thackney]

this IEA prediction from just last year (12/11/13) does not appear to be doing very well in the light of current supplies & prices;

Any major source predictions from a year ago that do look good today?

[biff]

Dauuuum, boy, you got a really fast one. I just upgraded from 300 baud to 1200 and thought I had the fastest crystal ball in the country!!!

[mountainlion]

The only way? I doubt that

Kinda a sarcastic mack at the author that they were experts and the only authority. Lots of things can happen that we have no idea that they are coming. $100 oil is just one guess.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I can’t call next week’s market...

[SES1066]

Any major source predictions from a year ago that do look good today?

I am sure there was at least one but that is only on the same basis that even an insane squirrel finds an acorn now and then. While this collapse in pricing looks somewhat logical in hindsight, it is somewhat akin to a 'black swan' event in terms of prognostication, at the very least because of timing. I was only referring to THIS study as it is from the same person / organization as you are citing, only a single year back. My problem with the IEA is that it is inherently biased towards government intervention and controls which I regard as undesirable.

CHANGE OF SUBJECT: How many answers are there in the "Magic 8 Ball" (tm) and why?

[hosepipe]

WHY?. fracking hasn’t even started in most countrys .. YET!..

[thackney]

That is part of the reason. There is little production growth outside North America.

[hosepipe]

WELL.. we wouldnt want the price of oil to drop TOO FAR would “we”(somebody)?...

The rubes could get used to it.. and yell like overburdened camels when they come to gouge “US”..

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SES1066.