[MUDDOG]

Nate predicted the Cassidy-Landrieu vote would be 58-42 (rounded from 57.8-42.2).

Here's the thread:

Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff (Nate Silver)

As you note, Nate didn't do too well with his overall Senate prediction in November. He wrote an interesting post-election analysis where he said there was something out there that he and the other pollsters were missing in off-year elections in general, and that he was going to to focus on finding out what it was.

[KC_Conspirator]

I do remember his article. He said the polls were terrible for oddsmaking, which they were.