The Divorce Surge Is Over, but the Myth Lives On

The New York Times ^ | December 2, 2014 | Claire Cain Miller

[Clintonfatigued]

But here is the thing: It is no longer true that the divorce rate is rising, or that half of all marriages end in divorce. It has not been for some time. Even though social scientists have tried to debunk those myths, somehow the conventional wisdom has held.

Despite hand-wringing about the institution of marriage, marriages in this country are stronger today than they have been in a long time. The divorce rate peaked in the 1970s and early 1980s and has been declining for the three decades since. Photo

About 70 percent of marriages that began in the 1990s reached their 15th anniversary (excluding those in which a spouse died), up from about 65 percent of those that began in the 1970s and 1980s. Those who married in the 2000s are so far divorcing at even lower rates. If current trends continue, nearly two-thirds of marriages will never involve a divorce, according to data from Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist (who also contributes to The Upshot).

There are many reasons for the drop in divorce, including later marriages, birth control and the rise of so-called love marriages. These same forces have helped reduce the divorce rate in parts of Europe, too.

[DannyTN]

Source

If people don't get married, how can they get divorced.

[KosmicKitty]

I’m working on an advanced degree in CJ. One theory floated was, of course, abortion, but the one that caught my eye was the removal of lead from gasoline.

What ever, I passed my theory comp using the two theories above. Better than saying, we will never know :-)

[Balding_Eagle]

Fifty Percent of American Marriages Are Ending in Divorce-Fiction!

http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/d/divorce.htm#.VH5rhZUtBFY

[married21]

With older divorces, I guess the idea is to get rid of your spouse before you have to be his or her nurse.

My older brother just split from his wife of 39 years,or vice versa. I bet she is glad she won’t be caring for him. He, on the other hand, I think, is looking forward to doing some dating, if he can find somebody interested.

I guess neither of them is into being pillars of the family any more.

[hinckley buzzard]

The only valid and useful statistic on divorce is the one nobody ever collects. That is the ratio of divorces to existing marriages in a given year. The old 50% stat was always bogus. It was based on a ratio of divorces to marriages in a given time frame. But the number of couples getting married is always a small percentage of existing marriages. Why the left wing "social scientists" chose to mislead the media this way for a generation, I leave up to the court.

[Ghost of SVR4]

I know PA dropped common law a few years back.

[familyop]

Many are avoiding relationships. Many are cohabiting without marriage. According to many of them (some work that I did and some ongoing projects), they don’t want to be like their mothers.

[TChad]

If people don't get married, how can they get divorced.

Exactly. Your chart is the real story.