My thoughts on that is we do not export oil per se so any disruption of that magnatude will move prices up smartly in the US as international sources for oil outside the US begin selling at far higher prices. Our domestic production increase has not quite made us oil independent, rather, it has made the US less dependent and the gap still would have to be filled with much higher cost oil. A removal of 20% of the world oil tonnage would be significant. However, I don’t think it will happen. A major importor of oil from the Persian Gulf is China. I don’t think Iran would wish to tangle with them.
Sometimes a certain type of economic logic turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A series of steps taken by and against Japan in the runup to WW2 come to mind.
Russia and America would both benefit by higher prices. Basically every supplier not in the ME would benefit. That is a considerable amalgamation of self-benefit.
We do export oil, and the old no exports of American oil is going under the bus.
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