Is the Middle East becoming less Arab?(Sunni hate Shia-loving Obama?)

Al Arabiya ^ | 8 November 2014 | Hisham Melhem

[Sherman Logan]

The classic previous comparison to oil for the Middle East would be the silver and gold of Mexico and Peru for Spain.

In 1500 Spain was a fully modern European state. It had remarkably similar political institutions to those of England, for example. It had thriving industry and commerce.

Then Cortez and Pizarro did their thing. Over the next two centuries Spain was for a while the dominant world power, then fell apart, largely due to “the wealth of the Indies.”

With money coming in without any need to produce things others wanted, the King no longer needed to negotiate with his subjects and work towards constitutional monarchy. He just built up his armies, with the wealth (or rather money) stolen from the Indians, and used them to crush any of his subjects who dissented. Industry and commerce fell apart. Who needed to do all that yucky (and low-class) work when you could just buy whatever you needed with stolen money?

The end result was that by 1800 or 1900 Spain was centuries behind England, France or Germany. Took the latter half of the 20th century for them to crawl back out of that hole, and then they dived back in with cheap German Euro credits, a variant of the same disease.

[SunkenCiv]

(“President Obama has been a dogged suitor in his pursuit of Iran's affection” Hisham Melhem) Not only the U.S. is supporting and arming the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, but also aiding and arming the Syrian Kurdish militia the People’s Defense Corps (YPG), which is valiantly defending the town of Kobani in Syria against ISIS’s relentless attacks, even though the YPG is allied with the Turkish Kurdistan Workers' Party PKK which was designated years ago by the U.S. as a terrorist organization.

Doesn't sound like Obama's got much interest in common with the Turks, other than their supposed common opposition to Assad; then read how much Obama has *actually* done to support the rebellion -- tents, food, medical supplies for refugees, nearly all of whom are outside Syria -- and his words of encouragement to Iran.

Quick! Change the subject! In with the remarks about John McCain!

Obama told the Russians he'd have more leeway after the 2012 election. Since that time he's reneged on everything he said he'd do on behalf of the Syrian opposition, lifted sanctions on Iran, and displayed his devotion to the destruction of Israel. Iran and Syria are allies of Russia. He may as well be Pat Buchanan.

[bert]

Prince Bandar said it over and over....... we want to modernize, but not to westernize.

That difference is the source of the middle east problems. On the Arabian peninsula there are those that are in fact modernizing and those that resist.

The best example is Usama bin Ladin. He resisted. His family however being great constructors led the way to modernization. They are building the infrastructure for a new society in the western province. For Usama, an engineer, that was intolerable.

The photo is of the skyline of Dubai. The photo is the best illustration available of the desire to modernize. Not only is there the desire, there is the action. Business and prosperity trump fundamentalist Islam. ISIL is dedicated to stopping that effort. ISIL does not represent the vast majority oF Islam that is enjoying better life because of modernization.

[InterceptPoint]

I agree with much of what you have posted.

But I am still convinced that the Obama chess moves, well considered or not, are ultimately intended to advance the interests of his own tribe, the Sunnis. And these actions by their nature work to the disadvantage of both the United States and the various countries currently dominated by Shiite governments.

[odds]

ISIL (ISIS/IS) is ‘socially ultra conservative’. Modernity is multi-faceted, even in the M.E.

[Sherman Logan]

Sorry, I don’t buy that Obama is Sunni or Muslim.

He’s just a typical member of the group he was educated with and has lived among his entire adult life. Highly educated, progressive Americans with reflexive but unreflective animosity towards Western Civilization in general and America in particular.

Their support for Islamists is not really anything of the kind. They just can’t conceive of any group opposed to Western Civ being bad.

They are an “anti” group, not a “pro” group. They aren’t really wedded to any of the causes they espouse. They aren’t opposed to WC because it’s insufficiently environmental or feminist or socialist or atheist or multi-cultural. They support those causes because they’re all at root anti-WC and merely provide a seemingly logical rationale for their hatred of WC.

Hence their ability to shift from one “cause” to another without breaking stride.

[InterceptPoint]

Their support for Islamists is not really anything of the kind. They just can’t conceive of any group opposed to Western Civ being bad.

You could be right about that.

But I'm a bit more conspiratorial. And it is hard to argue against the results of his actions in the Middle East. His only real "failure" is in Egypt where the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood was booted out of power. Iraq, Libya and Syria have been disrupted to the advantage of the Sunnis and the rise of ISIS as a regional power is the direct result of either Obama planning or incompetence.

I vote for planning. I suspect Valerie does too.

[Sherman Logan]

There is the old saying that one should never assign to malevolence what can be adequately explained by incompetence.

I just don’t buy that Obama is a secret Sunni or any other variety of Muslim. He lived in a Muslim country from age 6 to 10 or so, and we’re supposed to believe he developed, at that young age, a determined intention to become a secret agent to promulgate Islam?

His other contact with Islam was minimal. His grandfather, whom he never met, was Muslim, but his father and mother were both atheists. I believe the grandparents who actually raised him were at least nominal Christians.

[Capt. Tom]

Maybe the Middle East will develop a way of intereacting amongst themselves that actually works for them rather than trying to imitate the European model of the nation-state.

A Sunni Caliphate, and Sharia law would void and by-pass Nation States. Then the Sunnis would have time to deal with the heretics (Shias) in Iran, and us Infidels elsewhere.-Tom

[odds]

Surprisingly, it really isn’t only about heretics and sunnis. Otherwise, Kurds by majority are sunnis too. BUT, both Kurds, who are an Iranic group & all other Iranian ethnic groups (regardless of religious denomination) are neither Arab nor Turk. They are ethnic minorities in the M.E. - that’s is why neither Arabs nor Turks like them. IOW, it isn’t just about religion or sect, but mostly about ethnicity, culture & language.

[Sherman Logan]

I’m sure that’s their goal. Unfortunarly for them, the caliphate’s only real military advantage is our unwillingness to squash them like a bug.

That’s no way to win a war.

[Capt. Tom]

They are ethnic minorities in the M.E. - that’s is why neither Arabs nor Turks like them. IOW, it isn’t just about religion or sect, but mostly about ethnicity, culture & language.

That hodgepodge of ethnic groups, culture and to some extent nationality, is what works in favor of us Infidels being directly targeted by a uniform front of fundamental Muslims.

ISIS sticks to the letter of the Koran and Hadiths and attracts people from all over the world,without regard to race,national origin gender etc,
They want people who believe they are doing what Allah wants done; and are willing to put their lives on the line for that belief. (Subjugate ,convert or kill all Infidels.)

In the Sunni ranks there are Infidel collaborators and whishy washy believers and secular leaning members.
They will kill those people along with us Infidels. -tom

[Capt. Tom]

That hodgepodge of ethnic groups, culture and to some extent nationality, is what works in favor of us Infidels being directly targeted by a uniform front of fundamental Muslims.

That should read:That hodgepodge of ethnic groups, culture and to some extent nationality, is what works in favor of us Infidels NOT being directly targeted by a uniform front of fundamental Muslims.

In other words, because of so much dissension among the Sunni Muslims they have a problem keeping people on the same page.
A good reason for them to want to have a Caliphate and Sharia law, and get back to the basics of Islam.(Subjugating, converting or killing Infidels) -Tom

[GOPJ]

Iranians are smarter than arabs... and they’re more strategic... and paranoid. All that’s true. And they have delusions of ‘taking back the world’.... a scary combination.

[odds]

In other words, because of so much dissension among the Sunni Muslims they have a problem keeping people on the same page.

Hm, you're right.

[odds]

I don't think they 'want to take back the world'. But they are defensive & concerned about retaining their position. There was a time when they were absolutely paranoid about their regime being toppled; similar to the Soviets; that was at the beginning of the Khomeinist revolution. Not so much now.

I believe 2 things. 1) Iranian regime is very realistic & pragmatic. The insane ones are firmly kept in check by their regime (sane) counterparts; yes, there are sane & influential individuals within regime circles too. 2) they will die over time.

I can't fully explain certain cultural drivers in Iran in one or two posts. However, it will come down to either pushing them mullahs and their supporters completely out of the picture and by force, or letting them die naturally.

I was in favour of the first some time ago, but not now. The regime at present has a way of keeping itself in check. Of course I also think about what can, most likely, happen after this regime is gone, at least for now.

[sagar]

Here is the cold truth: Sunnis do not think Shites are true muslims. Shites try to over-compensate.

Iran, with its non-Arab roots, suffers from inferiority complex and that complex is exasperated by its Shite-ness. They are trying to over-compensate by funding Islamic Jihad across the Middle East.

The entire Middle East, with its Arabic, Iranic, Kurdic, Turkic, and Berberic elements, all muslimes to the core, is a huge CLUSTERFRCK. The only solution is to let the septic tank settle, but with oil interests breweing, this cannot happen. So, let the bloodletting continue. Let muslimes kill each other.

[InterceptPoint]

There is the old saying that one should never assign to malevolence what can be adequately explained by incompetence.
++++
Perhaps. But was the selection of Valerie Jarrett or his love for The Muslim Brotherhood due to incompetence? I don't think so. His actions have advanced Islam. His actions have advanced the Sunnis at the expense of the Shiites. Incompetence is a factor but it is not the whole story.

[Sherman Logan]

As far as I can see, every action of Obama is explained as well by what for lack of a better term I’ll call anti-Americanism, since its core principle is hostility to “traditional America,” as by any desire to promote the benefits of Islam or Sunnis.

YMMV