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FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast (up to 68.5% - season high)
FiveThirtyEight.com ^ | 10/31/2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/31/2014 8:02:13 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2

FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model combines hundreds of opinion polls with historical and demographic information to calculate odds for each Senate race. We estimate the probability that each party will win control of the Senate by running those odds through thousands of simulations. The forecast is updated regularly.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; senate
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The battle of the will of the people vs. massive voter fraud.
1 posted on 10/31/2014 8:02:13 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
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To: Eccl 10:2

Excellent. We need to get out and vote to combat the voter fraud that the left is planning. They can only fake the tallies so much


2 posted on 10/31/2014 8:03:16 AM PDT by therightliveswithus
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To: Eccl 10:2

Yay, amnesty will be legitimized with a GOP-e vote.


3 posted on 10/31/2014 8:05:26 AM PDT by Crazieman (Article V or National Divorce. The only solutions now.)
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To: Eccl 10:2
See my post in another thread. Nate Silver's estimate of 7 GOP pickups is currently the most optimistic of those that I surveyed.

Pickup Predictions

4 posted on 10/31/2014 8:10:39 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Did you see the thread about the 3-600 RAT hill staffers about to be jobless? Positively heartwarming.


5 posted on 10/31/2014 8:10:51 AM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Something tells me James O’Keefe is going to have a very busy day on Tuesday.


6 posted on 10/31/2014 8:14:19 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Eccl 10:2

538 has given up on trying to help the dems and decided to preserve their credibility and get the numbers closer to where they’ll actually end up on Tues.


7 posted on 10/31/2014 8:16:29 AM PDT by REDWOOD99 ("Everyone should pay taxes. Everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: InterceptPoint

That’s the most depressing thread I’ve read. I advise people avoid it.


8 posted on 10/31/2014 8:16:30 AM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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Support FR


Click The Pic To Donate

Please Donate!

9 posted on 10/31/2014 8:20:28 AM PDT by DJ MacWoW (The Fed Gov is not one ring to rule them all)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Kansas and Georgia are the top two tightest races.

Too bad they didn’t go with the tea party candidate like others did.

It’s still good news as I think we can win Georgia and Kansas is trending Republican.


10 posted on 10/31/2014 8:25:14 AM PDT by Bogey78O (We had a good run. Coulda been great still.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

High temporal variability of late...


11 posted on 10/31/2014 8:35:59 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Eccl 10:2
by running those odds through thousands of simulations.

Sounds like essentially the same technology used to determine POFF in baseball...

12 posted on 10/31/2014 8:37:42 AM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: REDWOOD99

Yup. Happening everywhere. Louisville Courier Journal now has McConnell up by 5.


13 posted on 10/31/2014 8:39:58 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: InterceptPoint

I’ll see your 7 and raise you 3. Chris Matthews predicts 10 Senate seat pickup in huge GOP Wave.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3221502/posts


14 posted on 10/31/2014 8:45:38 AM PDT by sportutegrl
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To: Bogey78O

“Kansas and Georgia are the top two tightest races.”

And we will win both of them.


15 posted on 10/31/2014 8:46:28 AM PDT by Beagle8U (If illegal aliens are undocumented immigrants, then shoplifters are undocumented customers.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/comparisons.html

I like this site as it shows a lot of aggregators. Of some interest is that the Daily Kos has a “reputable” predictor.

71% chance per NYTimes


16 posted on 10/31/2014 8:49:48 AM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: InterceptPoint

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/comparisons.html

Daily Kos, PW, WashPost, all are at 7. (strange that Kos has a reputable predictor. Who knew?)


17 posted on 10/31/2014 8:53:22 AM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: txhurl
That’s the most depressing thread I’ve read. I advise people avoid it.

LOL. Sorry about that. I will update my little chart on Monday and post it again in the main Election thread on Tuesday.

18 posted on 10/31/2014 8:56:57 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: Bogey78O
A new anti-Nunn commercial today.

An immaculately dressed and eloquent elderly black man standing in a run-down section of Atlanta. Everything about the gentleman screams "I worked my lifetime to be where I am." You have the impression he may be a minister or, perhaps, a funeral home owner. Whoever he is, he's successful and respectful but he hasn't forgotten his roots.

The gentleman says something along the lines of: Politicians often run for power or to continue political dynasties. [Photo: Ms. Nunn] Nunn doesn't care about you. The politicians we blacks always vote for don't care about you. You are not a citizen to them; you are only a vote. A vote for Ms. Nunn simply passes the torch from one political generation to another. Think and vote with a purpose.

The commercial was paid for by "Free At Last PAC."

19 posted on 10/31/2014 9:10:34 AM PDT by Scoutmaster (Opinions don't affect facts. But facts should affect opinions, and do, if you're rational)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Happy Halloween Donks!


20 posted on 10/31/2014 9:12:30 AM PDT by erod
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