Investment & Finance Thread Freepathon Special

Wonder what interest rates were back then?

Hey look at what I found here:

Seems they were still falling til after WWII.

Housing Starts 1.017MM, Exp. 1.008MM,
Permits 1.018MM, Exp. 1.030MM

So it’s mixed; interesting. Yahoo still hasn’t got it up yet...

We are nearing the bottom of the bowl...

Was that some Verbal Easing from Bullard yesterday?

The entire economy as depicted by emoji:

Verbal Easing from Bullard yesterday?

That's what it sure seems, it all started w/ the Bloomberg interview. OK folks, we just heard from the St Louis fed ceo, now let's hear it from the other 11 fed bank ceo's. One after another...

I learned something this week. I had a stop loss sell order on a small-cap holding, and it triggered a sell on Wednesday. I looked at the chart and there was a very short-lived spike down that day, low enough to trigger the sell. But then it went back up. And today, look at how “up” we are.

I think I’ll cancel my other stop loss sell orders. I’d rather watch the price myself, as I won’t be seeing the momentary spikes down, just the general trends.

What say you all?

Oh, should I put it back into the small-cap thing, or maybe put it in a short-term bond fund for now?

sure seems like it, I’m moving back in this morning...

Same thing happened to me and ever since I’ve done them manually. You made me think though; there should me money to be made using this to our advantage by ‘seeding’ the market w/ sells at a high and buys at some low, and just wait for the moves. In this wonderful age of $5 commissions it ought to pay...

...some sort of manipulation of the market... ...a concerted effort to ramp the markets at 3:30 pm. Go back and look at some charts...

The market is 'manipulated' by individual buyers and sellers just like a writer 'manipulates' his computer keyboard when he's posting copy. What's happening w/ the trade surge at closing is the distortion caused by institutional managers who are required by law to enter trades as of the market's price close for the day.

NYSE MAC DESK MID-DAY MARKET UPDATE:
DOW 16,417 (+300 points), S&P500 1892 (+29 handles), Brent Crude $86.00/barrel (+$0.18), Gold $1,232.60/oz. (-$7.90)

MARKET DRIVERS: (Stocks are exploding to the upside amid a solid round of corporate earnings and better-than-expected housing and consumer confidence data.)

• According to the Commerce Department, Housing starts climbed 6.3% in September to a 1.02 million annualized rate from a 957,000 pace in August. The reading was in-line with consensus estimates.
• The University of Michigan preliminary consumer confidence index for October increased to 86.4, the strongest since July 2007, from a final reading of 84.6 in September. The October reading topped the consensus estimate of 84.
• China’s central bank said it would inject up to 200 billion yuan, ($32.8 billion), into 20 large national and regional banks.
• European markets also rallied sharply as an ECB board member indicated that the central bank will start buying asset-backed securities and covered bonds “within the next few days” as part of its new program. (Greece is up by 1,170 Dow-equivalent points!)
• In the IPO-space, Zayo Group priced 21.052M shares last night at $19/share. The stock opened on the NYSE floor this morning at $21.51.

Rich’s Commentary:
Good news: the ‘Take ‘em Boys’ are back!... It has been an insane week for stocks, that’s for sure... For illustrative purposes, we’ve attached the one-week chart of the Dow below which shows how the market traded down 747 points from Monday’s highs to Wednesday’s lows — then reversed by 545 points from Wednesday’s low to today’s session-highs... Amazing. By the way, Wednesday was so ugly, many investors/traders were reaching for the panic button. Today, we see the short sellers reaching for that same panic button. Several factors have contributed to today’s rebound off of massive losses:
1- Technically, the major indices were way oversold.
2- Word hit the tape that the ECB is implementing a Bernanke-type QE program “within a couple of days”. (By the way, Greece rebounded by 1,100+ Dow-equivalent points today, after dropping the same amount on Wednesday!)
3- Yesterday’s comments by St. Louis Fed President Bullard, that the Fed should consider delaying the end of its bond purchase program to halt the decline in inflation expectations. (No one knew that was even an option!)
4- Solid earnings reports and guidance, particularly from Big Industrials, (GE and Honeywell).
We think the volatility is here to stay for a while, so keep your helmets at the ready just in case... Moving on, the Dow continues to extend to new session-highs, while volume is strong again today, (options expiration), with ~400M shares on the tape at this time. Internally, breadth is bullish across the board. Advancing Issues: 3362 / Declining Issues: 895 — for a ratio of 3.8 to 1. Advancing Volume exceeds Declining Volume by a ratio of 5.3 to 1. New 52-Week Highs: 38 / New 52-Week Lows: 14... Meanwhile, in the trading pits, Brent crude for December settlement advanced 1.2% to $86.83/barrel after gaining 2% yesterday. Some dovish Fed commentary and improved consumer confidence data is helping to rally crude off of the 28-month low it set two days ago. Bonds are lower again as traders fade the fear trade; bumping the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 2.209%... Notre Dame vs. FSU tomorrow should be a heck of a battle... We like the Irish... Have a tremendous weekend!

Sector Highlights brought to you by: streetaccount.com »

Industrials the best performer with the S&P Industrials Index +2.5%.
• Multis outperforming. TXT +11.1% leading after Q3 EPS beat as better margin performance offset weaker sales and increased F14 EPS guidance by 4%. HON +4% as Q3 EPS beat by ~4% on better organic growth, segment margins and taxes and raised low end of F14 EPS range. GE +3.7% Q3 EPS of $0.37 beat by a penny; 90 bp of industrial margin expansion and 31% increase in equipment orders the bright spots.
• Transports +2.1% mostly higher. Rail names generally outperforming, led by CP +3.9%, but KSU (0.5%) lagging after Q3 earnings better, although some attention on light volume growth. Trucking names led by YRCW +4.4%, while SWFT +2.2% added to Short-Term Buy List at Deutsche Bank and ODFL +2.3% upgraded to buy from neutral at Longbow Research. Airlines mostly higher, led by DAL +4.2%.
• Building materials outperforming. EXP +3.9% announced will acquire CRS Proppants for ~$225M cash. VMC +4.1%, MLM +3.8%.
• Machinery outperforming. ETN +4%, TEX +3.5% among notable gainers. Ag names lower, notably CNHI (1.7%), with selloff in corn and soybeans a likely headwind.

Energy outperforming with the S&P Energy Index +2.3%.
• Sector bouncing back with Brent Crude +1.2%, WTI Crude +0.9% to $83.44 trading higher as well. Note the sector has been beaten down recently, falling ~10% over the past month. Natural gas (1.3%).
• Integrateds outperforming. COP +4.4%, OXY +4.1% and HES +3.3% leading the way higher.
• Oil services higher with the OSX +1.6%. SLB +5.7% rallying after beating earnings expectations. Analysts were pleased with North American and Latin American performances. CJES +6.7%, HAL +6%, NBR +5.1% and WFT +2.7% also outperforming. NBR upgraded at both Cowen and UBS. PTEN +3.8% also upgraded by UBS. RIG +0.4% and HERO (4.8%) both downgraded at Cowen.
• E&Ps rallying with the EPX +2.1% adding to yesterday’s ~3.5% move higher. HK +5.7%, SM +5.2%, CLR +5.2% and WLL +4.8% a few of the notable gainers. CHK +0.2% adding to yesterday’s ~17% gain on the back of its sale of Southern Marcellus and Utica Shale assets to SWN +0.8%. Recall SWN fell ~10% yesterday on the news, but was upgraded by Raymond James this morning.
• Other notable performers: PSX +4.7%, ACI (6.3%).

Healthcare outperforming with the S&P Healthcare Index +2.1%.
• Hospitals and managed care adding to yesterday’s outperformance. THC +3.3% and HCA +3% leading the hospitals. Recall HCA had a positive preannouncement yesterday. AET +3.1% and WLP +2.8% leading the managed care names. UNH +1.7% upgraded at Leerink Partners, which believes the company will start growing again in 2015.
• Biotech broadly higher with the IBB +2.5%. Large-caps doing well, with GILD +4.7%, CELG +3.2% and BIIB +3.1%. REGN +9.6% rallying after announcing EYLEA injection meets the primary endpoint. Doesn’t appear impacted by AMGN +1.7% patent infringement lawsuit. MYGN (7.3%) selling off after receiving draft Medicare coverage from Prolaris, and lowering Q1 guidance.
• Ebola related stocks mixed. IBIO +18% and SRPT +5.1% a few of the notable performers. SRPT announced the publication of Ebola and Marburg phase I clinical study results last night. VSR (15%), NLNK (9.7%) and LAKE (6.2%) all under pressure.
• Other notable performers: SNN +4.1%, MCK +3.2%, ACT +2.4%. MCK initiated outperform at RBC Capital.

Tech in line with the S&P Information Technology Index +1.7%.
• Semis outperforming again with the SOX +2.1%. Earnings in focus with XLNX +7% after Q3 EPS beat by nearly 13% on better GMs with aerospace/defense the bright spot, while communications disappointed. ADM +3.8% Q3 missed and company guided Q4 revenue down 10-16% q/q, but Street more upbeat on restructuring plan that will include 7% global workforce reduction. SNDK (1%) lagging as Q3 EPS beat despite slight revenue miss on better GMs, with Street takeaways fairly upbeat, but supply constraints seen as a near-term overhang.
• Internet mixed. GOOG (1.4%) in focus after reporting Q3 EPS miss driven by lower than anticipated revenue and higher than expected expense growth, although Street reaction fairly neutral to report. NFLX (5.1%) continuing to selloff. FB +3.3% , TWTR +3% among leaders.
• Hardware also broadly higher. BBRY +3.4% among leaders. WSJ’s Heard on the Street column was cautiously positive on AAPL +2.2%, noting new iPad won’t be a major driver of growth, but as welcome addition to line-up.
• Software broadly higher. FTNT +4.3%, SAP +3.6% and CRM +3.3% among notable gainers.

Consumer discretionary in line with the S&P Consumer Discretionary Index +1.7%.
• Retail relatively underperforming with the S&P Retail Index +1.1%. URBN (13.4%) getting hit after saying the previously reported Q3 negative comps have continued quarter-to-date. The stock was downgraded by multiple analysts. WTSL (4.4%), AEO (3%), ANF (3%) and ARO (2.9%) the other notable decliners among the apparels. Dollar stores and discounters outperforming after Stifel Nicolaus initiated BIG +3.4%, DG +3% and DLTR +2.2% all with buy ratings. Housing-related space also outperforming with LOW +2.4% and LL +0.8% topping gains.
• Apparel and accessories led lower by VRA (2.7%), MOV (1.3%) and TIF (1.2%).
• Homebuilders higher with the ITB +1.5%. Housing starts beat slightly this morning, while permits were weaker. Continued to be driven by multi-family. HOV +5.4% leading the way. WLH (0.2%) the notable decliner.
• Auto space adding to yesterday’s rally. Services/parts led higher by MGA +3.6%, VC +3.5%, TEN +3.3% and HTZ +3.2%. GM +3.3% and F +1.3% also adding to yesterday’s strength.
• Media space broadly higher. TWC +3.1%, CMCSA +3%, DIS +2.8% and DISH +2% the notable outperformers.

Financials underperforming with the S&P Financials Index +1.6%.
• Banks below the tape with the BKX +1%. Money centers led by JPM +2.9%, while BAC +2%. Investment banks getting a lift from MS +2.6% earnings which showed big EPS beat with wealth mgmt., trading and IB helping. However, regionals mixed with the KRX +0.4% after busy day of earnings. Upbeat market reaction to earnings from STI +3.4%. However, earnings from CMA (2.3%), MTB (0.9%), HBAN +0.2% and BK +0.7% not as well received.
• Credit cards mixed. COF (3.2%) lagging after reporting Q3 EPS miss. AXP +3.3% notable gainer.
• Online brokers rebounding with ETFC +2.3% and SCHW +2.1% leading.
• Insurers outperforming, led by LNC +3.1%, PFG +3%.
• Asset managers outperforming. APO +5%, KKR +3.9%, FIG +2.8% the leaders.

Hello expat,

Could you remove me from your ping list? I am going away until at least next Spring, and will not have access to computers.

Thanks,

MC

We’ll miss you, take care.