Beijing? Only 14 years between hosting duties.
I think Beijing will get it.
Kazahkstan is just too unknown. IOC members would have to step out of their comfort zone to award it to that Central Asian country.
Ditch the Olympic village crap and use existing venues.
That kind of cost cutting would open the door for a lot of cities to bring a shot of revenue in without the massive outlay of building a bunch of spectacular stadiums that will be used once.
Beijing will win it because they are the only country left that can throw $Billions at the venue construction, organize tens of thousands of peasant workers to build it, and will keep the bribes to IOC leaders totally quiet.
I'm no fan of the Chicoms, but they put on a great show back in 2008, they have the money to do it right and they take security seriously. Kazakhstan is likely to either fighting a civil war or fighting off an invasion, there's too many risks.