Think this might alert the GOP-e to the fact that cr@pping on a sizable portion of your base isn’t a good idea?
Nate Silver is overrated. In 2012 he got lucky by having an accurate prediction of an election result driven by a major factor he had no knowlege of: the collapse of Romney’s GOTV system (Orca) on the morning of election day.
Unless, of course, he had advance knowlege that Orca would collapse, and Romney would fall short on his GOTV effort ...
May McConnell’s foolish objective to “crush the TEA party” come back to bite him and the rest of the GOPe.
Since the polls are very unreliable these days, Nat and a few others add to the polling data with some very sophisticated models based primary on demographic data and past voting patterns. He is very good and probably the best around for now.
I wonder how he is managing with this one. I would think that past voting patterns would be close to useless, with a phony Independent who is really a Democrat, an establishment Washingtonian who almost lost his primary large blocks of people who are very likely to vote some other way this time. The Freeper Harry Reid fan club will vote for Orman or stay at home, the liberal Republicans who elected Sebelius will vote for Orman, the Democrats will vote for Orman because they know that he is one of them, and the establishment Republicans together with the conservatives who haven’t jumped on the Harry Reid bandwagon will vote for Roberts. The Independents will be wishy washy as usual. I suppose that sort of analysis gives Silver his numbers.
At least he is far more liberal than weenie dimocRAT, the Sebelius KS not-so-supreme Court let slink away without obeying the law!
So-called anti-Roberts crowd may get what they've hoped and prayed for, someone besides Roberts in the Senate from KS! However, just like those "anybody but Hillary" got what they wished - Barack Obama, KS will get someone far, far worse than Roberts - Greg Orman!!!
Orman is definitely an Obama admirer and that goes both ways and he will vote for anything Obama wants and support Dingy Harry's "leadership!"
A leftist DREAM (plant) candidate, now there's the hope of every liberal in KS and possibly even that of the libertarians as well.
Nate will tell us where big time election cheating will happen.
Nate Silver said that many Republicans agree with Bush on immigration and it won’t derail Jeb.
That is a major issue. Pat Roberts has Kobach on his side. Roberts should get Jeff Sessions to campaign for him.
The lesson in KS is:
1. Dems will do absolutely anything to win. Cheat, lie, steal anything.
2. The GOPe needs to make peace with conservatives.
“Despite his prediction in the Kansas race, Silver says Republicans have a 58.5 percent chance of winning a majority.”
As of today he has it at 59.5 percent.