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To: Kartographer
...did you or is there even a way to take in account situations in which because of the death rate in combination of the lack of and deterioration of health service allows for both the increase spread and even higher death rate because of the lack of support treatment?

I did not take that into account. But I think it is at least partially included in the Daily Transmission Rate (DTR), since the DTR was calculated based on the actual spread of Ebola under the conditions you describe.

I think a bigger limitation of the model is that it relies on reported cases, and there is plenty of evidence, and even testimony before Congress from people who would know, that the reported cases underestimate the true size of the epidemic by a factor of at least 2, and possibly as much as 4.

My spreadsheet allows me to assume any percentage of underreporting, but I chose not to publish those numbers, since no one really knows. The numbers, based on the reported cases only, are frightening enough.

I plan to publish the spreadsheet once I pretty it up and finish updating all the references for the sources of data. You can do those calculations then, if you want.

Another big limitation of the model as it stands now, is that it doesn't account for the decrease in the number of "available victims" as the population in a given area dies out. I'm pondering that one.

38 posted on 09/19/2014 10:13:07 AM PDT by scouter (As for me and my household... We will serve the LORD.)
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To: scouter; null and void; Smokin' Joe

To me the key is Logistical Support. If the infection rate and death rate rises to a point in which it over whelms the the systems Medical/Logistical support capabilities then the ‘genie’ is truly out of the bottle.

A truly serious as well as unknown factor will be people reactions and how much of government services, manpower and logistical support might have to be diverted to handle panic arising from such.

We are seeing this in Africa right now if it reaches a point in which it becomes unsafe or impossible for medical teams securely preform their duties the spread of the disease could quick start spreading virtually unchecked.


41 posted on 09/19/2014 10:27:31 AM PDT by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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