AIDS spread that far and killed this many this fast? Even without sexual contact?
And for similar reasons. It’s not just the luck of the draw that Africa is where this is, and where it is spreading, just as it is not the luck of the draw that the kids coming across the border have lice, but your kids don’t.
There are a couple of trip-line points:
1. The first indication of Ebola in more civilized parts of Africa (Egypt, South Africa, Morocco.)
2. The first indication of a case “in the wild” off the continent.
3. The first indication of a case “in the wild” in China, Russia, Europe.
4. The first indication of a case “in the wild” in the Western Hemisphere.
I think we will see #1 soon. #2-4 will fall in fast order.
I am not expecting a flash fire, but I think once the walls to “western” populations fall, the whole thing will fall fast.
I would also expect if we see break outs in China or Russia population centers, its game over. I think they would make a breakout happen here. And vice versa. Yes, I know how “tin foil hat” that sounds, but it makes economic and military sense.
However....it can’t be dismissed that only twice before has the Security Council met to discuss the security implications of a public health issue – both times on the AIDS epidemic...and now Ebola....all relating to Africa.