I would like some opinions from those who think this is serious and are preparing to shelter in place.
What is the point you batten down? The first few cases in a major city? Cases reported in a hospital within 100 miles?
Cases at your local hospital?
I have my son-in-law, active duty Army, listening for any “odd” orders, any hint that the military is being activated for in-country deployment. If that happens, my doors close in 72 hours and no one comes in until I am confident that the problem either didn’t exist (false alarm) or it has burned out.
Alternatively, when I hear that a confirmed case exists anywhere east of the Mississippi, the doors close in 72 hours. My daughter and granddaughter will be here by then and we can wait it out. My husband will probably continue to go to work but he’s agreed to stay with family closer to the city if it comes to that.
I guess everyone has to decide for themselves when it’s the right time to hunker down. I’m sure everyone’s predicate is different. The predicates I’ve selected mean I have a greater chance of being wrong but I’m okay with that. I’d rather be wrong and have my children living than be right and six feet under.
Scouter's projection is just a spreadsheet. We've never seen Ebola loose in a major urban area before, where it could easily spread at double Scouter's projected rate.
IMO the issue for the US is vaccine availability. We must have 40-50 million Ebola vaccine units available right when Ebola hits a critical mass here - say about 100,000 victims - or it's national lockdown time for a month. What the indications of that would be is anybody's guess.
The trigger point for me panicking is when people are dying in the streets of Lagos, Nigeria, and not being immediately picked up. At that point Ebola will go worldwide even given widespread vaccine availability in the developed countries, and even the developed countries will suffer economic and financial catastrophe.
Very good question. Almost worthy of its own thread.
If it were to spread in the U.S.A., it would likely be carried to all points in the country quickly by travelers then stay in the communities for several years. Unlike flus, it’s an extremely tough virus that lives a long time on dry surfaces in a great range of temperatures, leaves survivors contagious for about six months and spreads very slowly but surely. Generally, nearly all people would be resigned to trying to live as they have.
‘Don’t Touch the Walls’: Ebola Fears Infect an African Hospital
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3190930/posts
Patrick Sawyer became infected in Liberia, traveled to Nigeria, denied to medical folks that he had it and urinated on nurses in defiance. Medical personnel contracted the disease from him. So he used a weapon that was more dangerous than firearms.
The disease is transferable to dogs that might then infect their owners.
Ebola Virus: From Wildlife To Dogs
ScienceDaily
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/06/050608065550.htm
Date:
June 9, 2005
Source:
Institut De Recherche Pour Le Développement
“Ebola virus antibodies were detected in dogs exposed to the virus during the latest epidemics, which suggests that these animals may well have been infected and can therefore be a new source of transmission to humans.”
We’ve seen many articles with headlines about cures (as with the false reports about AIDS cures for decades), but there’s no cure and no vaccine. Blood serums might help as a treatment (not known), but most of those who recover will be very messed up—mind and body—for the remainder of their short lives.