UKRAINE: Poroshenko and Putin- Peace plan and a plan for war.

liga.net ^ | 11.09.2014 02:30

[UMCRevMom@aol.com]

Petr Poroshenko Putin has received a formal occasion to end the war. Ukraine must decide whether it is ready to die slowly from a tumor in the Donbas, or live with the threat of war

Ukraine initiated cease-fire and invited Russia to agree on peace. Russia supported the initiative, but is trying to impose its own conditions of post-war settlement in Donbass. Vladimir Putin's immediate aim is to control Ukraine's foreign and domestic policy. The ultimate goal of the Elimination of Ukrainian statehood, by any means, regardless of the losses. What is Petro Poroshenko?

Peace plan

According to the agreed framework of the contact group in Ukraine and Russia, occupied regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions will receive a special status, which will be secured by law. Editorial Ligabusinessinform became known to key points of the Bill, whose provisions are agreed upon at the level of Heads of the presidential administration of Ukraine and Russia and are subject to change.

According to interlocutors Ligabusinessinform, Moscow demanded Kiev initially apply special status within the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk region. The President, however, Petro Poroshenko in conversation with Putin flatly rejected that option and made it clear that the liberated territory cannot be negotiated. In the end, the discussion was about the fate of the 13 districts in the Donbass, which remain fully or partially occupied by Russian forces and terrorists. Most of the-21 district-will remain free from invaders.

In addition, Moscow demanded to occupied areas of veto on foreign policy decisions of the Ukrainian authorities and the entire country. But this demand was rejected. In fact, however, Kiev agreed that the occupied areas will become like Ulster-formally reporting to the areas will be Ukraine, but de facto will be managed by Russia through its intermediaries and puppets.

Local leaders will be able to manage the budget, and local residents to elect the regional executive. According to the agreements, must be held early elections to local government bodies in those areas.

In addition, according to the agreement, on the territory of the occupied areas of the Prosecutor's supervision will be renewed and the activities of the security service of Ukraine. Here, as in all territory of Ukraine, elections will be held in the Ukrainian authorities. Including some of the militants may be among the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, forming pro-Russian lobby in Ukrainian politics.

According to preliminary agreements, the Ukrainian border would remain unchanged, but added a new cordon that separates the rest of the occupied areas in the Donbass region.

"But there is one but: no more subsidies. The main principle is that these areas are feeding themselves, the source said. -Any federalization will not-we have been and will remain a free and a unitary State, but with several areas that would receive special status within Ukraine.

Commenting on the conversation with Putin, people of Poroshenko said that the President is acting on the basis of the real capacity of the country and taking into consideration all potential risks, which cannot be measured by observing the negotiations. But in fact no one in the Ukrainian Government doesn't believe in peace with Russia. Almost all surveyed the officials believe that "only a miracle can stop the Kremlin machine murders." "The war almost inevitable-the Russians do not want peace. But we will do everything possible to avoid the war, "said the officials from the team Poroshenko.

War plan

War plan calls for a full-scale invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine. "Moscow has not abandoned plans to Crimea and create a land corridor," said the source in the presidential administration. Another interviewee noted that, under the plan, the main objective of the Kremlin powers-elimination of Ukrainian statehood through destabilization in all directions. Key direction-the destruction of the economy of Ukraine by any means and at any cost. Emphasis-gas, oil, coal and fuel for nuclear power plants.

One of the possible full-scale invasion factor is the delay of Kiev with the ratification of the association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. As soon as the document is finally approved, any brakes on Russia's part will be removed and the Putin regime will be evident in the final fight, spit on the sanctions and loss. The latest statement by the Russian side on the need to revise the agreement-another attempt to slow down the process of with a specific purpose.

As said by the interlocutor of the Ligabusinessinform in the diplomatic corps, after reviewing the list of requirements to the agreement, the Europeans have come to the conclusion that it was not about the economy, but Moscow's willingness to buy time to put a new economic blow to Ukraine.

"The fact of the matter is that in November the term unilateral preferences to Ukraine by the EU. Kiev managed to very advantageous to use this time, got to start seriously substitute delivery due to problems in the Russian market. In Moscow it is good to see. Their goal is to delay the ratification, to no longer act to cut all the preferences already established relations of the Ukrainian companies. On the Association Agreement, trade preferences under the agreement will take effect two months after ratification. That is, if Ukraine would surrender to Moscow and will not have time to ratify the document, then after a while will have a new major blow to its economy, "he said.

The Kremlin's obvious problem is the lack of land corridor in the Crimea. In winter the sea crossing is unavailable, and occupied the peninsula will face dire lack of resources. In these circumstances, Moscow will not be able to maintain the military capabilities of the occupational groups in the peninsula. It only on military, because permanent bans on supplying food to the Mainland of Ukraine for ordinary Ukrainian citizens in Crimea-the eloquent evidence of the relationship of the occupiers towards the local population: Moscow does not need people in Crimea-it needs military base. And land corridor are a great way to get rid of seasonal risks and dependence on Ukraine.

On the other hand, occupied areas of Donbass in need of its own outlet to the sea. The Russian army invaded Novoazovsk. But it is interesting only as a springboard for attacks at Mariupol, which lies on the strategically important port and transshipment point, that allow you to sell goods made in the Donbass, and importing raw materials. Hook in Russia increases the cost of logistics at times, making production unprofitable. Because the invasion of Mariupol and a corridor to the Crimea-the strategic objectives of the occupying forces of the Russian Federation.

In addition, simulating the "offensive of the Army militia", Moscow may hold any hostilities in Ukraine-up to March on Kiev.

However, the continuation of the war after the ceasefire will be costly Moscow-further sanctions, billions in losses and thousands of corpses of Russian soldiers in the war against Ukraine. And because the script and let the world look less profitable for the Kremlin, but lets him avoid many serious domestic political problems in perspective.

Hear Donbass

While the scenario of war more likely. Russian army prepares for a new phase of the invasion. And while the Ukrainian authorities started receiving pledges of support from NATO countries need time to regroup and prepare troops. Every day helps Ukraine to improve the situation in the army and to mobilize more resources for the protection of the State.

But military methods to solve all problems. Against the background of events in Donbas in Ukrainian politics is the new trend. First, on social networks, then at the meetings, and now in government offices are beginning to talk about the need for every citizen of Ukraine to decide, do we need the occupied areas in Donbass, the whole country will pull on the bottom. Whether they reintegrate into Ukraine in conditions of constant military, economic and informational aggression against our country? Formally, a technology solution to the problem is quite simple: the held information campaign, and then a referendum to one single question: "should the occupied areas of Donbass to remain unified in the Ukraine?".

While officials don't have the guts to talk about it publicly, because an informed waiver of its territories-a rare event in modern history. But occupied by Russian troops and by terrorists a few areas of Donbass look like a cancer on the body of Ukraine. The whole country could live very differently if the Kremlin had no ideological base in Ukraine, controlled agents and rebels in parts of the East of the country.

Military boundary in the Donbass region of Ukraine where outlined and Russian peace begins. But the hope was that Russia would take to occupied areas of Donbass, hopeless. "Russia needs" Abkhazia "in these areas. It does not need these people, and need a zone of conflict, "officials said in the AP. The problem is that in themselves occupied areas of Donbass will not survive, and Russia will not support them. In the end, the fate of the people who were going to stay, is unenviable.

Ukraine has not liberated part of Donbass, which shed the blood of soldiers and volunteers. But with regard to the occupied areas-if the problem is to freeze it, according to many, the risk of becoming chronic. After the peace, you will be sure to go to treatment, and not to pay for the billions of dollars on reconstruction of destroyed Russian army infrastructure. The means themselves. Earn, assign anyone want and survive any way you like-within their several districts. Those who want to live in a democratic Ukraine, need help with relocation and resettlement in a new place. With all the others who, as it turned out, 23 years, hated my country, you have to say goodbye.