Posted on 09/11/2014 11:23:51 PM PDT by DouglasKC
THE Ebola epidemic in West Africa has the potential to alter history as much as any plague has ever done.
There have been more than 4,300 cases and 2,300 deaths over the past six months. Last week, the World Health Organization warned that, by early October, there may be thousands of new cases per week in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Nigeria. What is not getting said publicly, despite briefings and discussions in the inner circles of the world’s public health agencies, is that we are in totally uncharted waters and that Mother Nature is the only force in charge of the crisis at this time.
There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.
The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africa’s population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums. What happens when an infected person yet to become ill travels by plane to Lagos, Nairobi, Kinshasa or Mogadishu — or even Karachi, Jakarta, Mexico City or Dhaka?
The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air. You can now get Ebola only through direct contact with bodily fluids. But viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
The problem is that the virus is mutating so that the ‘difference’ between ‘droplets’ and ‘airborne’ is becoming a null point.
It has always been ‘airborne’ (because bodily fluids are dispersed into the air constantly by your body. Feces is expelled into the air when you fart. If you smell someone else’s fart, you just inhaled microscopic particles of feces), it’s just that it couldn’t survive long enough to get very far. That is changing, and very quickly.
From the perspective of protective gear it’s a distinction without a difference.
You’ll note from the pics that the MSF people are NOT simply using mask, gown and gloves. They have 2 or 3 layers of protection over their entire bodies. Including goggles AND facemask.
They have lost the fewest numbers of their medicos to date.
Obviously ‘mask, gown and gloves’ is grossly insufficient in this outbreak.
Let's put it this way.
Evolution (or mutation) is dependent on reproduction.
The more hosts the virus can get to, the faster it can reproduce.
Which was the point of the original author.
Totally missed by some here.
By giving you Ebola.
However, 'transmission' DOES EQUAL "hyper-evolution".
Look, the bottom line is — and we’ve had this discussion before — some people like to panic and be scared a lot. I already observed you are in that group. Unless I see something that is a little more concrete than the conjecturing I have seen so far, or until I get an internal CDC memo, I am in the former group (the group of people not panicking and being scared).
Don't you mean "if the virus were to mutate so that it could survive longer in an airborne environment ?"
You admit I’m right then.
CDC is very late to this game. They were content to let MSF run this initially. As were all the ‘world’ health organizations. MSF has run them competently in the past. Never losing a medico prior to this outbreak. But only one of those outbreaks was in an urban environment. And in Kikwit the government bulldozed the road to Kikwit closed from the rest of the country.
And the more qualified MSF people are NOT simply following CDC guidelines. They’re going way beyond. And so far, they’ve managed to lose the fewest number of their people.
They aren’t using negative pressure suits. But they’re using WAY more than ‘mask, gloves and gown’.
Isn’t there a difference between ‘panicking’ and ‘being prepared’ ?
I’m not panicking.
I’m simply pointing out that the organization that’s been the MOST successful with losing the FEWEST numbers of their peeps has been MSF.
And they’re flagrantly not simply following the CDC guidelines.
For a reason.
If they were to simply use ‘mask, gloves and gown’, like the hospitals in country, they’d have lost as many of their people as the hospitals in country who have droves of medicos dead and dying at this point.
Even the Nigerians have figured this out.
I fail to see how pointing out inconsistencies is equivalent to ‘panicking’.
Were I to enter an isolation ward I’d insist on MSF level protection for that. Just based on performance. They’ve lost the fewest number of people to this so far.
I fail to see how that amounts to ‘panicking’.
I admit you are wrong.
About everything.
Always.
Flu season is just about to ramp up
It may be interesting when someone who has the flu also gets ebola- maybe truly a virus marriage made in hell
I think the scariest thing will be when someone infected flies international and infects people on the aircraft (by air or by using lavatory or just touching the seats trays etc) who then transfer to other international flights- exponential spread
Great!
Then you go to an isolation ward. But make sure you’re ONLY wearing a paper gown, mask and a single layer of gloves.
Make sure you complete an entire shift that way.
Do this for a week.
Get back to us with your negative test 21d later.
I spoke about your assertions with an infectious-disease person who just happened by looking for a co-worker. I told her how you were touting MSF over the CDC. She actually broken open in outright laughter. She let both of us know, MSF and CDC work *so* hand-in-hand, that there is a lot of crossover. MSF people are sometimes what we call 'CDC Fellows' and sometimes the CDC loans staff to MSF. There is a lot more blurring of those groups than you ever even considered.
She also advised me that the number of on-site CDC detail people in Africa will be up to 150 soon.
Been there; done that. Rolled in their poop like a cocker spaniel for a whole week. The test not only came back negative, but it further asserted I was now immune.
GREat.
Then you can tell me how many CDC personnel work for MSF in the isolation wards themselves treating ebola patients.
And why MSF so obviously flouts the ‘mask, gown, and gloves’ only protocol in their isolation wards!
And whether the CDC ‘fellows’ that supposedly care for ebola patients in the isolation wards adhere to MSF protocol or simply follow the ‘mask, gown and gloves’ one?
Should be
"I am not even an infectious disease person, and even I know that there will be different protocols for different THEATERS."
The body constantly perspires. It doesn't necessarily smell bad. Even so, the sweat is vaporized and the only thing that makes any difference is how long the virus can survive outside of the host.
This most recent mutation of the ebola virus has learned to survive longer outside the host.
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