https://www.aar.org/StatisticsAndPublications/Documents/AAR-Stats.pdf
Posted on 09/11/2014 5:36:45 AM PDT by thackney
Senators and shippers complained Wednesday that widespread delays in freight rail shipments are hurting a wide array of industries and driving some companies out of business, and they expressed doubt that the railroad companies are doing all they can to fix the problem.
The delays, which escalated late last year and continued through the spring and summer, appear to be the result of too few rail cars and too much demand from shippers, officials representing the agriculture, auto and chemical industries told a hearing of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee. Lawmakers displayed a photo of a giant mound of wheat standing in the open because North Dakota farmers can’t get a railroad company to ship it.
Shipping rates are 90 percent higher than they were in 2002, but service has drastically diminished, said Calvin Dooley, president of the American Chemistry Council.
When talking about the impact of railway operations, do you consider tons a better measurement than the number of cars?
you are a genius on this stuff, and really anything relating to oil and gas.
seriously.
keep up the great work. i think a LOT of us here at FR rely on your outstanding posts. thank you.
I’m just cutting & pasting...
Aren’t these numbers for the entire US...is it possible that the increase in oil cars is regionally higher in Midwest?
This type of stuff usually happens when we have a bumper crop...but we’re in drought. Strange to me that grain cars are growing - must be something driving that, other than merely having more grain.
The biggest growing category is ‘other’...I wonder what that is.
I do know that the railroads, particularly the BNSF, have been spending their time, attention, and money on government mandates lately...and probably less on expanding infrastructure. Namely, “positive train control” which sets up a network of radio towers that can remotely stop a train. Its a huge deal.
I also think a 5% jump in oil cars will ‘gum up the works’ more than a 5% jump in grain cars, because I don’t believe they can be ‘humped’ - meaning it takes longer to build trains that include oil cars.
BNSF is also identifying choke points in their system. They actually have a lot of room to expand, by stacking two shipping containers on top of each other. They already do this, but many of their routes have tunnels that prevent it - so they are making the tunnels bigger, to allow more double stacks.
And, in Texas, short lines are coming back.
My Q for you is: postulate a date for completion of the North section of Keystone, any date you like. Then, approx. how long (ASSUMING the RRs cooperate, perhaps a dangerous assumption) will it take for grain shipments to normalise and for coal shipments (ASSUMING the coal industry is still in business, of course) also to normalise?
The question may be unanswerable as asked, naturally, but if you'd care to have a go, please do.
FReegards!
That’s a fact, Jack.
"So that the record of history is absolutely crystal clear, that there is no alternative way so far discovered of improving the lot of the ordinary people that can hold a candle to the productive activities that are unleashed by the free-enterprise system.”
~Milton Friedman
Manifest trains ordinarily have Loads and Empties. Power assignments are dependent upon tonnage, ruling grade and track speed (HP for speed, Tractive Effort for grade)... want more of any, you need more locomotives.
From a planning, and economic development standpoint if you want to see trends, "carloadings" works... generally speaking, the average loaded railcar weighs 286,000 pounds.
I would expect in near certain, not just a possibility.
This type of stuff usually happens when we have a bumper crop...but we’re in drought. Strange to me that grain cars are growing - must be something driving that
Expectations for a bumper harvest have caused prices of corn, the nation's biggest crop, to fall 15% this year to near four-year lows, after plunging 40% last year. Soybeans, the No. 2 U.S. crop, also are near four-year lows.
Abundant rainfall and cooler temperatures in the Midwest paved the way for higher yields both this year and last. Earlier in August, the USDA estimated the nation's corn crop would reach 14.03 billion bushels in 2014, surpassing last year's record of 13.93 billion. Government forecasters also estimated the soybean crop would be by far the largest in history.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-farm-incomes-forecast-to-fall-1409072250
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Big crops don't necessarily get bigger. But this year's corn and soybean crops likely are.
USDA reported record yields and production for both crops in its first survey of farmers and their fields Aug. 12. The agency updates its estimate Sept. 11, and is widely expected to raise its forecasts. That prospect sent futures crashing to new contract lows.
http://farmfutures.com/story-big-crops-may-even-bigger-29-37662
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From Ohio to Nebraska, thousands of field inspections this week during the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour show corn output in the U.S., the world’s top producer, will be 0.4 percent above the government’s estimate. Months of timely rains and mild weather created ideal growing conditions, leaving ears with more kernels than normal on 10-foot (3-meter) corn stalks and more seed pods on dark, green soy plants.
Prospects of bumper harvests sent Chicago futures tumbling into bear markets last month, two years after a drought eroded output and sparked the highest prices ever.
I also think a 5% jump in oil cars will ‘gum up the works’ more than a 5% jump in grain cars, because I don’t believe they can be ‘humped’ - meaning it takes longer to build trains that include oil cars.
There is has been 51,000 more oil cars and 112,000 more grain cars per a late summer report. The oil cars almost always are gathered in one spot and delivered in one spot, taking less time and effort to complete the runs.
They actually have a lot of room to expand, by stacking two shipping containers on top of each other.
Judging from the traffic reports, this is not much of a container shipping issue.
Its not just rail capacity. The congestion we saw last year cascaded throughout the system with the arrival of the polar vortex. When snow falls every switch that is lined for a new track/ movement needs to be swept clean so the mechanism can close.
If it wont close due to ice, a trainman has to go out to chip ice/snow away then operate a switch- some times even if its a dispatch controlled switch.
This compounds delays.
As delays pile up, crew time is burning for every job that is moving freight. If Johnny switchman in Nebraska is having a crappy day cleaning switches, he can’t move freight from track A to any other tracks...which delay The fellas out on the main line waiting to cone in w their delivery.
As the main line guys get held up, they run into hours of service problems at 12 hours. If that happens, a relief crew comes out, taking a rested crew off the roster, leaving one less regular crew to pull the next train...
Its a manpower/tracking/logistics nightmare...
Many of you are right, the RR has crapped out on local delivery in favor of oil and big money shipments. Our yard in Fresno is losing our intermodal service for fresh fruits/veggies/mail which will be replaced by ethanol or grain. Now all the local farmers have to send their stuff to Stockton’s intermodal facility adding 75-100 truck loads to our local freeways each day.
The worst part is we are on one main track in many places with all the port traffic, and Amtrack to compete with. This makes for long days of moving a few sidings, then long waits before moving again while other priority traffic scoots by.
Imagine if UPS delivery hubs were in the middle of the sticks with only a single-lane dirt road to move all their trucks into and out of the facility. Essentially thats how BNSF yards are out here in CA.
None of the Keystone XL is going to be built without approval of the border crossing. Other portions of the Keystone pipeline system are already in operation.
Then, approx. how long (ASSUMING the RRs cooperate, perhaps a dangerous assumption) will it take for grain shipments to normalise and for coal shipments (ASSUMING the coal industry is still in business, of course) also to normalise?
I don't see them much related. Nearly all of the Keystone XL is for Alberta production. It is not going to carry a significant portion of output from the Bakken.
But I will answer that: because they can.The railroads have been nationalized before, back in the good old days of a supposed free market economy. Sarcasm of course but you gel my point.
Thanks for that perspective.
I would have expected while tonnage is important for locomotive needs, number of cars is a greater impact in the loadings, sidings and handling times.
The problem is there are only 6 major railroads left in North America(CN, CPRS, BNSF, UP, NS, CSXT). In many parts of the country one of the railroads may have a monopoly. In North Dakota where they are having problems getting their grain moved, the only choice for most is the BNSF. They have been the worst offender(IMHO)over the last year of delays in moving railcars because they are using too much of their equipment to move oil trains. Therefore, all other commodities such as coal, grains, sugar, forest products(my gig), etc. are taking a back seat to moving oil.
From what I have read, most of the oil rail trains are not going to the Gulf Coast. They make far more money hauling to locations that are not already served by the pipelines and the Gulf Coast is having a hard time handling the increased volumes of light sweet as it is.
Let me know if you see different info. Thanks for your input on the thread.
From Ohio to Nebraska, thousands of field inspections this week during the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour show corn output in the U.S., the world’s top producer, will be 0.4 percent above the government’s estimate. Months of timely rains and mild weather created ideal growing conditions, leaving ears with more kernels than normal on 10-foot (3-meter) corn stalks and more seed pods on dark, green soy plants.Prospects of bumper harvests sent Chicago futures tumbling into bear markets last month, two years after a drought eroded output and sparked the highest prices ever.
I read "Too much corn" as "Too much in government corn subsidies being paid to farmers to grow corn for making the ethanol used to dilute our gasoline with, under government mandate".
I would have expected while tonnage is important for locomotive needs, number of cars is a greater impact in the loadings, sidings and handling times.
Dittoing ConDude and SAJ... your energy reports are beyond valuable to this community. I am happy I can contribute some to the factual discussion of the "issues" that impact our domestic economy.
Yes train length is a factor for yard and siding capacity.... but you can always build more track cheaper than you can build new locomotives. There is a HUGE backlog of locomotives... maybe the government needs to go after G.E.? Bwahahahaha!
true true...but...you are always finding the right stuff....and in fact you also offer commentary from time to time...
in any event...keep up the good work!
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