Rothenberg: Senate GOP Gains At Least 7 Seats

Rollcall ^ | September 8, 2014

[SMGFan]

While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.

Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands and, more importantly, where it is likely headed on Election Day. Since early polls rarely reflect the eventual November environment, either in terms of the candidates’ name recognition and resources or of the election’s dynamic, there is often a gap between how I categorize each race (my ratings) and what I privately assume will happen in November.

That gap closes as Election Day approaches, of course, since polling should reflect changes in name identification, candidate and party spending, and voter attitudes as November approaches.

Right now, for example, the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call Senate ratings suggest Republican gains in the mid-single digits. My newsletter has the most likely outcome of the midterms at Republican gains of 5 to 8 seats, with the GOP slightly more likely than not to net the six seats it needs to win Senate control.

[taildragger]

There is really no excuse for them not picking up a minimum of 13 seats . . . except that these are Republicans we are talking about here.

You are correct, but they will not as they have put "us" in a box, and I would imagine many here will be giving their candidate the "Italian Salute" this November, Mississippi and Kentucky for sure.

Will it make any difference? I doubt it. We still have the comity crowd, the Progressives McCain and his side kick Lindsey and they will pass bills, because that is what they do, not the opposite.

FWIW, if they get as many RINO's as I think they will, they will have the political long knifes out for Cruz, Lee, and possibly Paul, bet on it...

It is time for a new party, I am sick of the E-GOP and their trough feeder's K-Street, and how we are marginalized. It is time to divorce ourselves of them and focus on our own lives, and thriving without them, in a Galt-ish Fashion...

[Williams]

Winning seats is good because repubs will probably lose some in 2016, but this is just a stepping stone.

A republican senate can do very little except block a few more appointments.

[newfreep]

Amnesty for 40 MILLION ILLEGAL ALIEN CRIMINAL INVADERS is coming this year after the Nov elections in the lame duck session

[lurk]

Such a win would put Hairy Reed off to one side, but does not ensure any conservative advances.

[Zenjitsuman]

WE need 9 minimum, then the RINOS can go join the Dems and it won’t matter.

[Carl Vehse]

Cut spending.
Repeal Obamacare.
Require border enforcement.

Don't forget to impeach Traitorobama for his crimes of giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

[srmorton]

I pray that he is correct about NC! Kay Hagan would never have won six years ago if Obama had not been on the ballot. I did not vote for Thom Tillis in the primary, but he is more conservative than most Freepers give him credit for being. He has helped enact changes that have already positively impacted our state - although, to hear the Democrats tell it, the state may never recover from these “draconian” cuts.

[DoodleDawg]

So what was Rothenberg predictions in 2012?

[TexasFreeper2009]

no need for them to cross over when there is a democratic president. It only mattered when you had a republican president that would actually sign anything passed by the Senate.

McCain and Gramnesty will gladly pass anything through the Senate knowing Obama will veto it. It gives them and all of the other RINO’s the ability to pad their conservative resume without the risk any conservative legislation actually being signed into law.

[Dave W]

That is a nice thought, but you need 67 senators for that to happen. That would be a gain of 22 seats.

[murron]

That will be Louisiana. That’s how Landrieu got in in the first place.

[Viennacon]

We can afford to let Cochran go down then. Bear in mind, we get a majority, and schlub Angus King will caucus with the Repubs anyway. I also expect Manchin to jump ship. Time to kick out Thad Cochran.

[ncalburt]

i worry about that too.

[SoFloFreeper]

yeah, well, one can dream, right? :)

[RipSawyer]

Do you think what happens in November will be related to an actual election in any way other than being called an election?

[Dave W]

Yes, one can dream and I can say I have dreamed the dream. Just the thought of the look of the wretched Reid to know they were completely powerless is something I would love to see.