I don’t think consumer demand explains the shortage.
I’m undecided.
I heard recently that some manufacturer (CCI?) was making 3 million rounds per day.
At that rate they make enough for everyone in the country to get one round ... every 100 days.
If only 10% of the population is looking for 22LR ammo, then they can each get one round every ten days, or a box of 50 every year-and-a-half. (from that manufacturer - add all the manufacturers, and 10% of the country can get a box every few months).
The supply really is just a trickle compared to the demand.