Your scenario is unlikely. The separatists, on their own, even given monetary and arms support from Moscow, cannot possibly hold more than 1/10th the country on an extended basis. Kiev will recuperate, and given the hatreds Putin has now insured, Putin will be “in” until the dripping blood forces him out for good. Afghanistan x10, but with some different twists...
“Your scenario is unlikely. The separatists, on their own, even given monetary and arms support from Moscow, cannot possibly hold more than 1/10th the country on an extended basis. Kiev will recuperate, and given the hatreds Putin has now insured, Putin will be “in” until the dripping blood forces him out for good. Afghanistan x10, but with some different twists...”
10% of the population is more than enough to rule an entire country, particularly when they are in the position of money and power.
As for Kiev you greatly overestimate not only their ability to function but their ability levy war. If Putin wanted he could, after securing a puppet government in Crimina simply station Russian troops as border guards, or better yet sign a defense treaty with that pupit government giving him an excuses and not so veiled threat to keep Kiev out of crimina.
Yes it could be very ugly with Civil unrest and perhaps even war in Crimina, but if that 10% has most of the guns and strategically valuable ground they will win that war without Russian’s official involvement.