My guess is that Russia will want to occupy strategic parts of East and South Ukraine, create a land bridge to Crimea. Ukrainians gave the Nazis a hard time, Russia does not want to occupy more of Ukraine than is needed. I still hope Ukranians will develop an insurgency, my tax dollars should totally go to that.
Why?
Poroshenko can’t stop the Russian army.
And Afghan-style insurgency works only if the Russians are stupid enough to move into Western Ukraine.
Putin won’t take the bait.