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Let me assure you, my natural tendency is towards the bear side. I am a skeptic.

But my “association” w/Tice dates to 2001-2...when the tech wreck post 2001 bottomed, which is when I found him and his site. (I never invested in BEARX) And I and all manner of very astute (or ass-toot) people talked endlessly about how impossible it would be that the market would ever climb out of the hole it had gotten into, that people would never pay anything but cheap-as-dirt prices for any equity ever again and that the market was a a place where people went to flush their money down the toilet buying overpriced nonsense.

All of that being true, LOL, it’s not *always* true, and indeed, it’s *very* often not true and indeed, it is true so rather infrequently that it is a viewpoint that in the main is generally not worth bothering with.

It is true that no man knoweth, but there comes a point when even a bitter or unaware or indifferent or stubborn man must change his mind. We are seeing this now, with the last last last last bears capitulating, and if you want to call that a topping sign, I will not argue. Top or no top, that DOES NOT MEAN ONE IOTA that a giant catastrophic dip from hell is awaiting around the corner. And THIS is what the permabears permanently get wrong. Wanna call it a top? Fine. Been wrong 57 times, maybe this time they’ll catch it. But if there is no giant dump after they are short, most likely they will make a tiny bit on a dip, cover early (and thus NOT be short for the big dump) but because they have been run over so many times they cannot stay short for more than....mere days.

The market is not about certainties. There are no certainties, there are only probabilities.

I believe the market is rather extended, here, but IMO to think that SP2K will not be defended is quite naive.

Furthermore, each and every one of the last 37 dips has been bought. Oh yeah, one of these days, the next one won’t be. But all you have to do is to short the market on these dips and lose 3% 37 times and you are now wiped out. So on that time when thing really comes apart, you are not there for it and you’re too bruised from all your selling failures to date.

It is an odds-based playing field, it is probabilities, not certainties. If the behavior of the market were certain, and you (and I) could see it, that would mean that a zillion other people could see it and if there was unmarked value (eg; a $40 stock sitting there for $30) people lots smarter than you and me would bid the price up to $40 in milliseconds. This is the paradaox. There can never be certainties. If there were, the market would not move, would not rise over time, would not recover from corrections, nor HAVE corrections.

At present, there is no other place to put money that makes the ROI that the market can do and I don’t believe it is much more complex than that. If the money, to you, or to Joe Blow is fake fiat money, then don’t try to make more of it. No skin off my back if you do or if I do.