True .but not every election turns on the same dynamics. I’m talking about big picture drivers.
Not every election has equal motivations on both sides. This particular race, and the 2014 mid terms in general, seem to be an election where issues of gay marriage and abortion are not the drivers.
So very true---sometimes post-election analyses finds issues the pundits never pin-pointed.
In the recent Cantor route, little-known issues WRT Cantor making enemies of top Repubs drove the election in some areas.
Everybody thought Cantor was "untouchable". Nobody thought his TV ads would hurt him....but the $5 million ads kept repeating the positions of his opponent---which Cantor figured would hurt the opponent.
Turns out, voters liked whet they heard and dumped Cantor.
The private circumlocution of voters in the voting booth is hard to predict.