My great-uncle, after combat all across the Pacific, including New Guinea, Philippines, and Okinawa, was going to be in the first wave to hit Japan.
He said they told him his unit would take “at least” 95% casualties ... probably just because you’re probably going to have one fluke survivor somehow, if the unit’s big enough.
Actually the Japanese casualties would have been even higher than a million. We had absolute control of the air over Japan. We were and would have continued to bomb every major city, industrial complex, factories of importance, until Japan ceased to function as a unified society. Disease and starvation would have killed more than a million easily. Once we invaded our casualties would have been high despite the destruction of Japan's infrastructure. We would have been ruthless as on the Island campaigns in the Pacific, because we faced a ruthless enemy.
It seems that in our nation we have forgotten that war must be ruthless to be effective. If you are not willing to kill your enemy and all that stand with him surrender, for he has already defeated you.