ISIS is a relatively primitive force. It is dependent upon the roads as it line of communications to keep supplied and maneuver its forces. ISIS is largely unable to move its forces overland away from the road system. ISIS doesn’t have an air force or logistics organization. If it tries to attack Saudi Arabia it will be in a world of hurt — particularly if the Saudi forces are reinforced by Egyptian and/or Pakistani forces.
My assessment is that ISIS will be looking for weaker targets for a long time.
I would disagree on this assessment.
ISIS has picked up the Nazi strategy of just driving into a town...picking out the mayor and top dozen leaders...and killing them. Toss in the school director and a few teachers....suddenly everyone is all happy to support ISIS. Same deal would work in Saudi Arabia. I don’t see any real Saudi security folks staying around after some regional commander is beheaded.
As for Egypt and Pakistan? Pakistani intelligence services would come with the troops, and there’s probably some ISIS insiders with them. One or two hits on the Pakistani crews, with public beheading of the officers, and the whole team would slide back and just let ISIS move on.
Egypt might be a player, but you’d have to talk about 20,000 troops....moving across a wide area of territory to get into the area of action. It might take two or three weeks to get these guys into position, and ISIS would already have taken half of Saudi Arabia by that point.
As for the US? The Administration would spend ten days discussing things, then reach for a committee to evaluate actions for another ten days.
All of this equals oil prices going up to $200 a barrel within a thirty-day period. If you knew ISIS was going for the five-star plan, I’d buy into various non-Middle Eastern oil companies for investment purposes and prepare for some good price deals.
I second it.