Nate Silver warns the political class that it could still be a GOP wave year

Hotair ^ | 08/04/2014 | Noah Rothman

[SeekAndFind]

Public opinion polls, as they say, are a snapshot in time. And a glance at the polls today suggests that the 2014 midterm elections are shaping up to be good for Republicans, but a landslide does not appear to be in the offing.

As of this writing, Real Clear Politics puts nine of this year’s 19 even competitive Senate races in the tossup column. Many of those races poll so tightly that it's impossible to make an accurate prediction about how they will shape up but, as RCP notes, the GOP is set today to pick up six net seats for a slim 51-49 majority in the 114th Congress.

The New York Times election modeling feature The Upshot comes to a similar conclusion. As of today, the Republican Party has a 53 percent chance of taking control of the upper chamber of Congress. “[T]hat doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Republicans to win the Senate,” The Upshot clarified, “the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.”

Of those same nine tossup races, The Times only gives Republican candidates better than even odds of winning four of them. With two of those races, Kentucky and Georgia, representing holds for the Senate’s minority party, and with three pickup opportunities for the GOP in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota now appearing to be Republican locks, this would also leave the GOP with a one-seat majority.

The consensus opinion is clear: A good Republican year, but no tsunami.

But FiveThirtyEight statistics analyst Nate Silver has some advice for elections analysts that cuts against the grain. He noted on Monday that the polls do not show a Republican “wave” is forming, and it is clear that the GOP can still retake the Senate even in a “wave’s” absence.

[Wyatt's Torch]

If the GOP can’t make material gains in 14, 2016 is going to be an epic disaster.

[ScottinVA]

The GOP tsunami.

[ScottinVA]

Mark Kirk, Mitch McConnell (especially if he’s voted out of the Majority Leader position), or Susan Collins.

[pfony1]

No wave — unless you stick to counting just the votes from living citizens.

But — with voter-fraud of Chicago-land proportions — the zombies may tip the “majority” their way.

Then what?

Demand a “recount” from the “winners”?

Demand the Attorney General investigate and disqualify votes from dead people?

Disqualify all but one “absentee ballot” from registered voters.

Don’t get cocky!

put the PROPORTIONS

[ScottinVA]

If the GOP can’t make material gains in 14, 2016 is going to be an epic disaster.

They'll probably win five, but lose McConnell's seat in KY. Call it +4.

[monocle]

If McCain were to go, Lindsay Graham would shortly follow.

[ForYourChildren]

This election will show the state of the people minds. I predict the GOP will do well, but only that. Which implies that the state of the people minds is still being clouded.

Being clouded by who and why is the real question.

[txhurl]

Gonna tell you another thing, kid. STINGRAY. The program your local cops have been using those new Explorers to vacuum up your cell phone records.

Pretty sure Snowden will release this in October.

[SoFloFreeper]

Nope.

[skinkinthegrass]

Mitch McConnell (especially if he’s voted
out of the Majority Leader position)sure, maybe Minority Leader (by Reid's rules), why pay
attn. to the Senate rules, he rules the senate..

"We Don't need no rules..."

[FlipWilson]

Hard to have a “wave” when you have no unifying theme to nationalize the election. Oh no, to do that would be to anger the independents or be called racist or some such nonsense. Instead, the GOPe is employing the same “run out the clock and win by default” strategy they employed in 2012.

[1010RD]

polls do not show a Republican “wave” is forming

That proves the utter failure of the GOP to effectively engage a POTUS worse than Carter.

[1010RD]

They need to grab 11 seats. A slim 1 vote majority just makes these dopes victims. What will they accomplish? I like that they get committees under their control, but they’re just caretakers until 2016 and a new POTUS. You have to have some depth to keep control.

2016 has 23 GOP Senators up for reelection and only 10 Democrats.

SENATORS UP FOR REELECTION IN 2016

DEMOCRATS

Michael Bennet (Colorado)
Richard Blumenthal (Connecticut)
Barbara Boxer (California)
Patrick Leahy (Vermont)
Joe Manchin (West Virginia)
Barbara Mikulski (Maryland)
Patty Murray (Washington)
Harry Reid (Nevada)
Charles Schumer (New York)
Ron Wyden (Oregon)

REPUBLICANS

Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
Roy Blunt (Missouri)
John Boozman (Arkansas)
Richard Burr (North Carolina)
Dan Coats (Indiana)
Tom Coburn (Oklahoma) – Retiring in 2014. Seat TBD in 2014 special election.
Mike Crapo (Idaho)
Chuck Grassley (Iowa)
John Hoeven (North Dakota)
Johnny Isakson (Georgia)
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
Mark Kirk (Illinois)
Mike Lee (Utah)
John McCain (Arizona)
Jerry Moran (Kansas)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
Rand Paul (Kentucky)
Rob Portman (Ohio)
Marco Rubio (Florida)
Richard Shelby (Alabama)
John Thune (South Dakota)
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)
David Vitter (Louisiana)

Hawaii, Oklahoma and South Carolina each have one Senate seat TBD in 2014 Special Election. Winner of 2014 special election will be up for re-election in 2016.