A billion barrels is about 45 days of US domestic consumption at current rate. 200 billion barrels = 200 x 45 = 9000 days, which is something like 27 years worth.
However, that domestic reserve could be used to leverage down the world price of oil for far longer than that, if managed prudently.
The key words are, “we could” but unfortunately, we WON’T.
However, that domestic reserve could be used to leverage down the world price of oil for far longer than that, if managed prudently.
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I think US consumption of oil will start to go into decline after about 2020. Further that decline will start to steepen by 2025. By 2030 there will be a price collapse on oil. It will be hell on oil producers but heaven for American consumers and the worldwide economy. Oil prices will wind up about $+-35 a barrel — which on a btu basis is about where coal and natural gas are today.
There will always be oil in the ground mostly because it will no longer be used so much.
As a saudi sheik once said, “the stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.”