Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: JPX2011
Question: Does Ebola eventually “burn itself out” over time as the infection spreads? Does it become less virulent? I thought I had read that somewhere but I’m no epidemiologist.

Infections burn themselves out when they can't spread effectively anymore.

So, if it has a high fatality rate, it runs out of victims and dies out, at least temporarily.

If the weather changes and gets colder (assuming that is a risk factor) or people are able to stop new infections by stopping whatever behavior put them at risk, or if they find a vaccine, it may die out, at least temporarily.

If people are able to slows the spread in any way, it may die out, at least temporarily.

In this specific case, this strain of Ebola is slightly less likely to kill victims than other/previous strains. Some strains/instances have had a 90% fatality rate. This time, is reported to be closer to 60% or so.

This is bad, from the standpoint of how long the period of ongoing infection can last. If it quickly killed more people, those people would be less able to spread it.

Additionally, this time, it isn't just in rural areas. It is in large, heavily populated cities. This is bad for obvious reasons - more people, closer together, easier routes of infection.

I have read that some previous Ebola infections have died out around October, due to cooler weather. October is a long way away.

I would very much like to see a ban on travel out of the area until the infection has stopped. Why this hasn't happened, I can only guess.

14 posted on 07/28/2014 4:21:49 AM PDT by mountainbunny (Faithless is he that says farewell when the road darkens ~ J.R.R. Tolkien)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies ]


To: mountainbunny

2 people in Lagos have been hospitalized. 21 million population!!


19 posted on 07/28/2014 6:15:08 AM PDT by DCBryan1 (No realli, moose bytes can be quite nasti!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson