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Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation - Why Putin Shot Down MH-17
forbes.com ^ | July 26, 2014 | Greg Satell

Posted on 07/26/2014 2:15:43 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe

Why would the leader of a powerful country in reasonably good standing want to risk everything by putting himself in the same league with Muammar Gaddafi? ...Since the crisis began, he has been taking on ever greater risk—not to mention serious damage to the Russian economy—with negative return. ....

So it appears that Putin is not only a poor chess player, he is an exceeding bad poker player, constantly raising the stakes while facing a decreasing expected return. If he ever could return Ukraine to the fold—an exceedingly unlikely prospect—he would accomplish no more than a return to the status quo ante. ....

The pattern of events shows a dangerous pattern. At almost every stage, Putin miscalculates and then raises the ante. He clearly did not expect the protests that broke out against the scrapping of the EU Association agreement, nor did he foresee that the crackdown would bring even more people to the streets.

Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The pattern continued with the separatist movement. While it gained some traction in Donetsk and Luhansk, it went nowhere in most of the industrial East. Russian actions were quickly put down in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa, where most of Ukraine’s high level industry—not to mention a good bit of Russia’s military industry—is located.

After the election of Petro Poroshenko to Ukraine’s Presidency came more setbacks. The rebel strongholds of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk were retaken by Ukrainian anti-terrorist troops and they began moving toward Donetsk and Luhansk. So Putin escalated again, sending heavy artillery and more sophisticated weapons, including the one that shot down MH-17.

Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The downing of MH-17 is a logical consequence of the pattern.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: malaysia; russia; ukraine
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To: cynwoody

Your anti-American trolling is the problem, trying to compare the incident the Navy was involved in to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and shooting a civilian airliner down from 33,000 feet for no reason.

Why you are working so hard for our enemies is puzzling, I guess you guys didn’t disappear after your last Russian empire collapsed.


81 posted on 07/26/2014 8:57:29 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: RaveOn
The Ukrainian PM resigned because the ruling coalition collapsed when two smaller parties, Udar and Svoboda withdrew from the coalition. Since no group of parties has a majority of parliament seats, new elections will have to be held. The IMF wants Ukraine to agree to austerity measures in order to get a loan, specifically they want Ukraine to raise gas prices. The small populist parties are against the austerity measures.

This will likely result in a stronger position for President Poroshenko whose party will likely be a big winner in the new elections. Poroshenko is from Kiev, and he ran for President against Yulia Tymoshenko, who is from Dnepropetrovsk. The PM who resigned, Yatseniuk, is a member of Tymoshenko’s party. The collapse of the governing coalition therefore represents a victory of the populist Maidan forces in Kiev over the oligarchs of the Dnepropetrovsk clan.

82 posted on 07/26/2014 9:03:18 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: ansel12; cynwoody

You’re as loud and dumb as John McCain.


83 posted on 07/26/2014 9:07:44 PM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: mac_truck

LOL, at least he and I were on the right side against Russia.

Here you are working for them.


84 posted on 07/26/2014 9:11:51 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: ErnBatavia

He has torpedoed the US petrodollar and you nary hear a word of it. The BRICS are setting up free trade zones left and right. I never even heard of the term ‘de-dollarize’ before this year and now Turkey is the latest to de-Dollarize. Poor chess player, indeed.


85 posted on 07/26/2014 10:23:26 PM PDT by IDFbunny
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To: IDFbunny

For several years now, I’ve been harping about the danger of the U.S. greenback losing world reserve currency status — but, this is also the first I’ve heard of “de-dollarize”. It’s an awkward-sounding word; but, we’re probably going to hear a lot more about it (unless someone comes up with a better term soon). The only way the U.S. gets away with “printing money” to pay its foreign debts, is because of the reserve currency status. However, printing money to pay debts is a major abuse of the privilege of having reserve currency status. If more of the world “de-dolarizes”, Americans will get a painful lesson in real-world economics — i.e. economics where balanced budgets actually matter, and where you can’t inflate yourself out of debt.


86 posted on 07/26/2014 10:35:31 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

This is long way from over.

Putin is a Russian locked into the Russian game plan, Crimea is just the first course he is going for all Russia sees as theirs and westerners are analyzing him like he is westerner.

Meanwhile Prez Dithers is working on the design of the new rainbow Marines flag.


87 posted on 07/26/2014 11:26:36 PM PDT by free_life (If you ask Jesus to forgive you and to save you, He will.)
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To: RaveOn

What an idiotic question.


88 posted on 07/27/2014 1:00:04 AM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: RaveOn
The Ukrainian fighter jet was recorded by Russian radar near the airliner before MH17 went off radar, and the Ukrainian government is silent on that.

The Ukrainians have also not released the air traffic control tapes seized by their Security Services, which may shed light on whether another plane was nearby.

89 posted on 07/27/2014 6:19:50 AM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

Exactly. Thinking the Dollar invincible is hubris.


90 posted on 07/27/2014 8:45:52 AM PDT by IDFbunny
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To: Fantasywriter

Thanks for sharing, I used to watch ‘Gentle Ben’ and ‘Flipper’ both sweet programs.


91 posted on 07/27/2014 9:12:59 AM PDT by BigIsleGal (Wake Me Up When the Stupid Wears Off)
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To: BigIsleGal

You’re welcome. I never watched Gentle Ben, but Flipper was required viewing. I was born and raised in FL, and I recall as a little child the whole family gathering to watch the show about our state. I think it was filmed on location. Anyway, we loved that show; thanks for bringing back a good memory.


92 posted on 07/27/2014 10:12:09 AM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: Fantasywriter

Riding a bear was just the opening act.

93 posted on 07/27/2014 11:33:57 AM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

You have Preepmail.


94 posted on 07/27/2014 11:53:34 AM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: Fantasywriter
If he was not involved in the shoot down itself, he certainly is the one that made it possible. When you give, or even loan, that kind & level of missile equipment to a bunch of drunken, undisciplined ‘rebels’ you are responsible for the uses they put it to.

I agree.

95 posted on 07/27/2014 7:35:36 PM PDT by samtheman
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