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Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation - Why Putin Shot Down MH-17
forbes.com ^ | July 26, 2014 | Greg Satell

Posted on 07/26/2014 2:15:43 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe

Why would the leader of a powerful country in reasonably good standing want to risk everything by putting himself in the same league with Muammar Gaddafi? ...Since the crisis began, he has been taking on ever greater risk—not to mention serious damage to the Russian economy—with negative return. ....

So it appears that Putin is not only a poor chess player, he is an exceeding bad poker player, constantly raising the stakes while facing a decreasing expected return. If he ever could return Ukraine to the fold—an exceedingly unlikely prospect—he would accomplish no more than a return to the status quo ante. ....

The pattern of events shows a dangerous pattern. At almost every stage, Putin miscalculates and then raises the ante. He clearly did not expect the protests that broke out against the scrapping of the EU Association agreement, nor did he foresee that the crackdown would bring even more people to the streets.

Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The pattern continued with the separatist movement. While it gained some traction in Donetsk and Luhansk, it went nowhere in most of the industrial East. Russian actions were quickly put down in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa, where most of Ukraine’s high level industry—not to mention a good bit of Russia’s military industry—is located.

After the election of Petro Poroshenko to Ukraine’s Presidency came more setbacks. The rebel strongholds of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk were retaken by Ukrainian anti-terrorist troops and they began moving toward Donetsk and Luhansk. So Putin escalated again, sending heavy artillery and more sophisticated weapons, including the one that shot down MH-17.

Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The downing of MH-17 is a logical consequence of the pattern.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: malaysia; russia; ukraine
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To: Tailgunner Joe

That’s why Putin ultimately has to make a play for Central Asia.


41 posted on 07/26/2014 3:33:57 PM PDT by Gluteus Maximus
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

I didn’t realize the bear/Putin photos were fake. The only place I’ve ever seen them is on this site, and they were posted as being real. I.e.: used to compare Putin’s manliness to Obama’s lack thereof. I figured bears have been trained to dance & ride motorcycles, etc. Why would it be impossible to train one to take a saddle? Glad for the clarification, though. It’s helpful.


42 posted on 07/26/2014 3:34:27 PM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: McGruff

8. What was the name and religion of the pilot and co-pilot of MH17?

9. Why were two Ukrainian fighter jets “escorting” it?

10. Was this plane shot down becuase it was hijacked and flying on a new course?

ABT: anything but terrorism!

;-)


43 posted on 07/26/2014 3:56:30 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: McGruff

Answers to questions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. A bunch of Russian drunks shot the plane down thinking it was military. Send my answer to your boss at Russia Today.


44 posted on 07/26/2014 3:57:31 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: RaveOn
9. Why were two Ukrainian fighter jets “escorting” it?

did you just make that up?

45 posted on 07/26/2014 3:58:53 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: Fantasywriter
When you give, or even loan, that kind & level of missile equipment to a bunch of drunken, undisciplined ‘rebels’ you are responsible for the uses they put it to.

Who says Russia gave it to them? The separatists have been raiding military depots all over the Donbas and even claimed to have seized a Ukrainian BUK just two weeks before MH17 was shot down.

46 posted on 07/26/2014 4:06:12 PM PDT by Drew68
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To: GeronL

Judge for yourself:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-ukrainian-fighter-jet-near-plane-before-crash-russian-tv-blames-cia-20140722-zvho8.html

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the radar data on the fighter jet near MH17 is official and comes from the Russian government itself, not RT or Channel One. (I know enough to disregard anything that comes from those sources.)


47 posted on 07/26/2014 4:07:51 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: 1rudeboy
It was a darn accident.

Could be. A decade or so ago, the Norwegians (iirc) were launching a rocket with a scientific payload, having sent out the required international notices about the intended date/time/location.

That particular notice never reached the Russian missile launch monitoring chain of command, and they came very close to responding to the perceived "attack".

48 posted on 07/26/2014 4:08:09 PM PDT by Calvin Locke
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To: RaveOn

RT and Channel One are owned and controlled from the Kremlin.

I am supposed to trust Russia on this?


49 posted on 07/26/2014 4:08:52 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: McGruff
The plane diverted its usual flight path to avoid bad weather, Ukraine did not deploy BUK’s in Eastern Ukraine, and the BUK that shot the plane down came from Russia, and the USA has released evidence proving that separatist terrorists shot the plane down.
50 posted on 07/26/2014 4:09:55 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: RaveOn

radar does not have drawings of airplanes on them


51 posted on 07/26/2014 4:11:02 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: RaveOn

And before we bash Russia again, might I point out that the Ukrainian government hasn’t released any radar data associated with the MH-17 incident, whereas the Russians already have.


52 posted on 07/26/2014 4:12:47 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: GeronL

So far, only the Russian government has released radar data related to the MH-17 incident. Where is the Ukrainian government with their radar data?

And I did point out that the SMH article was not sourced from either RT or Channel One.


53 posted on 07/26/2014 4:17:12 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: Gluteus Maximus

Putin lost Central Asia while he was distracted with Ukraine.
He’s not a genius. He’s a loser. He’s not going to conquer Central Asia anymore than he is about to conquer Mongolia, Korea, or Japan. He’s not even going to conquer Eastern Ukraine either. He can barely hold onto Donetsk. What good is Donetsk anyway when all of its people have fled the city?


54 posted on 07/26/2014 4:18:29 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe

The Russians have real information to dispute all your unsourced statements if anyone doesn’t mind going to a Russian News site http://rt.com/news/174496-malaysia-crash-russia-questions/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter and see their side of the story. This should be an interesting investigation when it happens.


55 posted on 07/26/2014 4:19:34 PM PDT by McGruff (We can't even secure our border never mind Ukraine's.)
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To: RaveOn
According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the radar data on the fighter jet near MH17 is official and comes from the Russian government itself, not RT or Channel One.

Hello? Anything coming from RT or Channel One is "official" and comes from the Russian government "itself."

56 posted on 07/26/2014 4:19:35 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: McGruff

LOL—you said “unsourced” while speaking of Russia Today.


57 posted on 07/26/2014 4:21:10 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Drew68

There’s more info on this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3182438/posts?page=21


58 posted on 07/26/2014 4:22:56 PM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: 1rudeboy

So are you saying that Ukrainian fighter jets did NOT approach MH-17 over the danger zone? What evidence do you have?


59 posted on 07/26/2014 4:24:18 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: RaveOn

“Danger zone?” It was an international flight corridor, used by dozens of jets that day. This one got shot down by accident. Any evidence of Ukrainian fighter jets approaching the others? That would be a good place to start, instead of buying into the Russian spin.


60 posted on 07/26/2014 4:27:26 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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