[henkster]

While we are in hypothetical land, we have not yet violated Henkster’s Law of alternate history. We don’t have to worry about Hitler not being Hitler because he’s...well...dead. But the Germans are still the Germans. And that means that they fight. I’ve always been amazed at their resiliency and willingness to put up a stout resistance in 1944 and 1945, even though intellectually they must know the war is lost.

But there were a number of them who were die-hard Nazis, and the Nazi ideology kept them going. It wasn’t until late January 1945 that you saw disintegration in the West. It never happened in the East, because of who they were fighting. If you take away the Nazi fanatics, who now have nothing to be fanatic about, you lose a lot of the hard edge of resistance. And once you start talking peace, the idea of being shot at by the guy on the other side is far less appealing. Without the Nazis, the average German just don’t have a reason to fight that hard in the west, if at all.

Yes, the German generals still run the show, but by now none of them are thinking offensively. There will be no Battle of the Bulge, which was only made possible by the last spasm of production by Speer’s armament industry. And the quality of strategic and operational thought on the German side has been on the wane for a while.

So, I think the German rot in the west starts almost immediately upon the public acknowledgement of peace feelers. And while the Germans will try to resist in the East, tax-chick is correct. The Russians are unstoppable.

My take is that the Red Army meets the Americans on the Oder, not the Elbe, and does so in November-December, not April.

[colorado tanker]

A good story about Nazi fanatics is the strange battle of Schloss Itter, high in the Austrian Alps, just before the war's end. Some high profile prisoners, including French political leaders, were under house arrest. After Hitler committed suicide, the guards fled. An American lieutenant took a detachment of American troops and surrendered German troops, along with some Austria resistance, to free the prisoners.

Behind them was a tiny remnant of the 17th SS Panzergrenadiers determined to kill the prisoners. Americans, Germans and Austrians fought off the SS until a larger American unit arrived to rescue them.

Fanatics. 99% of the German Army was trying to surrender to an American or Brit and get rid of any evidence of Nazi involvement and these guys want one last ounce of revenge.

[fso301]

But there were a number of them who were die-hard Nazis, and the Nazi ideology kept them going. It wasn’t until late January 1945 that you saw disintegration in the West. It never happened in the East, because of who they were fighting.

Without Hitler, my guess is the generals in charge would not have used flying courts martials which would have resulted in a rapid collapsa.