[xzins]

I think it will be 5-4 in favor of Hobby Lobby.

1. IIRC, the contraception provision is NOT part of the law but is a regulation added to the law by the administration.

2. There are a huge number of exemptions already handed out.

3. The court will narrowly rule that Hobby Lobby also can have an exemption.

This will leave it open to change once the administration ends all its other exemptions. But, by then, this administration will be gone.

This enables the court to avoid actually ruling on the law or the regulation.

[Portcall24]

I think it will go against Hobby Lobby because it is a corporation rather than a sole propritor or partnership.

[kjam22]

I agree. 5-4 in favor of Hobby Lobby.

[Servant of the Cross]

From your lips to God's ear ....

In addition to your valid points above, I submit two additional ones ...

It runs afoul of RFRA:

... governments should not substantially burden religious exercise without compelling justification;

Since 0bamacare only still stands today as a "tax", it runs afoul of both the equal protection clause of the 10th Amendment (friends of 0bama get exemptions while others do not), and the requirement that all bills raising revenue originate in the House of Representatives.

[Nervous Tick]

>> I think it will be 5-4 in favor of Hobby Lobby.

I pray that it’s at least 5-4 in their favor.

With this court, however, I wouldn’t bank on it.

[OneWingedShark]

The USSC will dodge the issue by finding some way to deny them standing.

[ScottinVA]

1. IIRC, the contraception provision is NOT part of the law but is a regulation added to the law by the administration.

True, but remember how Roberts actually re-wrote the Obamacare document in order to bend it just far enough to classify it as a "tax."

I predict the SCOTUS will try to apply the King Solomon trick to toss a bone to the good guys, but will rule for the darkside, 5-4.