I think Justice Roberts will protect Obama once again.
Unhappily, I agree that Roberts will cave. He views his job as finding a compromise rather than looking at the issue and seeing it as the Constitution says (or not).
At best, I think it will be 5-4 that the regulation goes too far, but it will be on some basis that allows the government to continue to apply the regulation to other businesses. Every business will be forced to spend millions in legal fees to fight its individual status...