“So naturally, the moderators in charge of the CPX had to constantly change the ROE and redefine the stated capabilities of the Backfires, their anti-ship missiles, and the defensive capabilities of the carriers.”
I’ve known several submarine navy officers and enlisted who claimed they regularly sank carriers in exercises and those sinking’s were later rescored as damaged or no hits. What is the point of exercises if we don’t learn from them? Or, is it that carriers are so vulnerable that they can’t be defended? Frankly, I’d like these exercises scored by people who don’t have skin in the carrier game. The thought of potentially losing five thousand men at a clip should keep somebody awake nights!
I have been in many exercises where A-10s destroyed entire US Army Battalions. And as a result, the US Army adjusted assessment protocols.
Thing is, simulations are just that—simulations. They are not real-world. They are only as accurate as the modeling and programming allows, and for the longest time we had no real-world experience upon which to program (80’s for example), therefore results were heavily skewed.
After initial simulation runs, programming is adjusted using human factors analyses (a dose of ‘get real, common-sense’ thought) to to get a realistic assessment that reflected the best balance between real-world knowledge and experience with simulation programming. But what if you have no relevant and/or recent real-world data? We assume worst case.
Programming is based on a superhuman capable enemy. See modeling and simulation results before Gulf War I. In that simulation the Iraqi Air Force with “top” russian aircraft and SAMs kicked butt—simulation said 80 US aircraft would be downed (we lost 14), and simulation said we would have up to 30,000 US KIAs (we have 113).
These simulation numbers and stats showing spectacular Iraqi results were just that, simulations.
Five thousand men and WOMEN. The Romney and Sununu boys don’t want to participate so the gals are now aboard combatant vessels. Bull Halsey would be rolling in his grave.
Going way, way back, there were stories in the sub fleet concerning such exercises, where sub kills of carriers were discounted or ruled out, and the stories usually included something colorful like an adversary submarine surfacing right next to the carrier to make their point clear. Of course, these were tales told by submariners.
Going way, way back, there were stories in the sub fleet concerning such exercises, where sub kills of carriers were discounted or ruled out, and the stories usually included something colorful like an adversary submarine surfacing right next to the carrier to make their point clear. Of course, these were tales told by submariners.