Expected growth in non-OPEC production reduces the call on OPEC crude required to balance the market

n June 11, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reaffirmed the group's crude oil production target of 30 million barrels per day (bbl/d) that has been in place since December 2011. This target is slightly above the 29.8-million-bbl/d call on OPEC crude oil and global stocks during 2014 presented in the June Short-Term Energy Outlook (Figure 1).

The expected 2014 average call on OPEC and global stocks is 0.3 million bbl/d lower than in 2013, with an additional 0.2-million-bbl/d decline during 2015 to an average of 29.6 million bbl/d. Growing non-OPEC supply, particularly from continuing tight oil production growth in the United States, drives the expected easing of global oil market conditions and contributes to the forecast of moderate crude oil price declines, with North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaging $108/bbl in 2014 and $102/bbl in 2015, down from an average of $109/bbl in 2013.

The call on OPEC crude oil and global stocks is a key indicator used by analysts to assess the general condition of global oil markets. It is calculated as world consumption less non-OPEC supply and OPEC noncrude oil supply. An increase in the call means more crude oil supply from OPEC or a drawdown of stockpiles is expected to be needed to meet global demand.

The expected decline in the 2014 and 2015 call on OPEC crude oil and global stocks is part of a continuing trend in which strong growth in non-OPEC liquid fuels production has reduced the amount of OPEC crude needed to balance global supply and demand. EIA estimates that non-OPEC liquids production grew by 1.4 million bbl/d in 2013, averaging 54.1 million bbl/d for the year. EIA expects non-OPEC liquids production to grow by 1.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and by 1.2 million bbl/d in 2015, with production from tight oil formations in the United States as the main driver. Non-OPEC supply growth surpassed world consumption growth in 2013, and is forecast to do so again in 2014. EIA projects non-OPEC supply growth will be slightly lower than world demand growth in 2015, but a projected 0.3-million-bbl/d increase in OPEC noncrude oil production, largely condensate, continues to reduce the call on OPEC crude and global stocks.

Despite the declining call on OPEC crude supplies to balance the market, recent experience demonstrates that events can intervene to tighten supplies and push prices higher than expected. Unplanned global supply disruptions averaged 3.2 million bbl/d from January to May 2014, up from 2.7 million bbl/d for all of 2013. More than 1 million bbl/d of Libyan production has been offline since the third quarter of 2013 because of sporadic protests at some oil fields and blockades at major oil export terminals. Saudi Arabia has been key in counterbalancing supply disruptions. Despite growing non-OPEC supply, Saudi Arabia has maintained crude oil production levels from 9.5 to 10 million bbl/d during the past year. Because almost all of OPEC's surplus production capacity is in Saudi Arabia, higher levels of Saudi production have lowered levels of OPEC surplus production capacity. Surplus production capacity can act as a shock absorber for global markets, and increasing spare capacity is often considered to exert downward pressure on prices, all other market factors equal. EIA estimates average OPEC spare production capacity at 2.0 million bbl/d during the first half of 2014, up from the end of 2013, but down 0.4 million bbl/d from the first half of 2013.

EIA expects spare capacity will increase over the remainder of the 2014-15 forecast period, averaging 2.4 million bbl/d during the second half of 2014 and 3.5 million bbl/d in 2015. This build in surplus capacity primarily reflects reduction in production to accommodate higher forecast supply levels from Iraq, Angola, and Libya, as well as some non-OPEC producers. These estimates do not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran but is currently offline because of the effects of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's oil sector.

The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline decreased by two cents this week to $3.67 per gallon as of June 11, 2014, two cents more than the same time last year. Price decreases occurred in all regions of the country except for the Rocky Mountains, which increased less than a cent to $3.51 per gallon. The Midwest and Gulf Coast each declined two cents, to $3.69 and $3.42 per gallon respectively. West Coast and East Coast prices both decreased by a penny, to $4.00 and $3.63 respectively.

The national average price for diesel fuel decreased by three cents from last week to $3.89 per gallon, four cents more than the same time last year. Prices for diesel fuel decreased in all areas of the country. The East Coast, Midwest, Rocky Mountains and West Coast all decreased by three cents, to $3.98, $3.85, $3.91, and $4.00 per gallon respectively. The Gulf Coast price declined by one cent to $3.77 per gallon.

U.S. propane stocks increased by 3.4 million barrels last week to 49.2 million barrels as of June 6, 2014, 0.4 million barrels (0.9%) lower than a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels and Midwest inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels. Rocky Mountain/ West Coast inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels and East Coast inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.6% of total propane inventories.

"Price decreases occurred in all regions of the country except for the Rocky Mountains, which increased less than a cent to $3.51 per gallon."

"Rocky Mountain high" tourist bait for CO. That's pretty funny. Prices range from $3.799 to $4.499 around here. Diesel, $3.999 and up. Remember the hunt for tourists' firearms under the new laws, and remember the fire bans. ...and DUIs for dopers.

It looks like Iraq is headed to civil war with the fall of mosul and tikrit to the islamists. If civil war does to Iraq’s production —what it did to Libya’s production—then there’s going to be a spike in oil prices coming in the next weeks & months. Nor will the civil war play out in weeks or months. Rather it will play out in years and decades.

If the oil price hike is too big and too long—the price hike will tank the economy.

In the short term, the islamists are headed to the nearest oil fields for a takeover.

That’s going to set off big news across the world because Iraq is a large oil producer. Even the threat of the loss of Iraqi oil production will materially affect oil prices around the world.

imho that will spike oil prices to 120@ barrel. Then the market will wait and see what happens next.

I don’t know what happens next. But the Islamists raided the banks in Mosul and walked away with 500 million dollars. Plus they seized immense stores of american weapons when government troops just ran away.

So the islamists are now well armed and funded for battle with the government in bagdad.

Unless others in OPEC raise production to offset.

We have significantly reduced our imports, particularly from Nigeria. They and Saudi may have capacity to spare, although I really would not want to depend on Nigeria.

Yeah, I think any price spike would be short lived—based more on fear than real oil disruptions. The Iraq’s are currently shipping about 2.6 million barrels @ day. Most of their production is in the south of the country — far from rebel territory.

The Saudis have 1 million plus of spare capacity. I think I’ve seen numbers that show OPEC has a couple million barrels@ day of spare capacity.

They just completed a meeting in Vienna at which they agreed to hold production at something like 30 million barrels@day.

So even serious supply disruptions from Iraq could be made up for.

But the risk of big supply disruptions puts a floor under oil prices. They are not going under $100@barrel any time soon.

And the price range may move from 90-110 to 100-120

Currently prices are at the top of their current range near 110.

Iraq Says Southern Oil Facilities ‘Very, Very Safe’
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/133505/Iraq_Says_Southern_Oil_Facilities_Very_Very_Safe#sthash.WHmb3Bdb.dpuf

Iraq’s southern oil export facilities, currently its only export outlet, were secure, with shipments now running at around 2.6 million barrels per day, Oil Minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said on Wednesday...

All our exports now are from the Basra terminal in the south - and it’s a very, very safe area,” Luaibi told reporters ahead of an OPEC meeting. Iraq’s northern export pipeline, which connects to a Turkish terminal, has been out of action since March after a bomb attack...

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