Posted on 06/11/2014 5:15:25 AM PDT by cotton1706
For the first post-primary Wednesday this year, Im not having to poke holes in the pre-ordained MSM narrative for this campaign cycle, The Year of the Republican Establishment, wherein the Great Big Adults of the GOP were supposed to put down the unruly Tea Folk and position their pragmatic party perfectly for smashing victories in 2014 and maybe 2016 as well. Id say the Republican voters of the 7th congressional district of Virginia put that meme to rest for the immediate future.
Yes, in case you werent anywhere close to political news outlets (or Twitter, which exploded) last night, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, poised to inherit John Boehners gavel any old day now, and usually thought to be safely to Boehners right, was denied renomination by the Republicans of his district. By a 56-44 landslide. To a nobody that he outspent at least 20-1.
So now Randolph-Macon College economics professor David Brat is the GOP nominee for Congress in the 7th District, and unless Cantor chooses to roll the dice on a general election write-in campaign (which would, of course, kill his leadership career even if he won, and might even throw this strongly red district to a Democrat), hes history. And speaking of history, theres no recent precedent for a House or Senate Majority Leaders deposition in a primary. The closest analog is Newt Gingrichs (then serving as the number two Republican in the House) near-death experience in a 1992 primary immediately after a redistricting force him to move into unfamiliar territory. Two years later, Newt stood astride Washington like a colossus. Cantor can only imagine what might have been.
(Excerpt) Read more at talkingpointsmemo.com ...
“An avalanche of 18,000 more Va Repub voters turned out this year than last time.”
RATS chose their candidate before the primary, a bunch of those may be crossover rat voters.
Yes! I am disappointed not to see more photos of Cantor and others looking confused and down...I want to GLOAT, dammit!
Cantor lost, fair and square.
Cantor is one of the US Chamber of Commerces star Amnesty Whores that has become a lame, (but still very dangerous), duck, and there are many, Many more Amnesty Whores to go.
It is time, - - - - time for a change.
He’ll just move into another district that’s more in line with his ideology and then he’ll run again. When then Faux conservative congressman Jay Inslee(D) was defeated in 94 for the WA 4th district (eastern Washington) he moved to liberal Bainbridge Island and was elected back to congress from there. Of course he didn’t have to pretend to be conservative and was free to express his ultra liberal views. He could have stayed there forever until he decided to run for governor. Now were stuck with him and his global clan are change BS that he spews every waking moment.
Mmmmm......but Cantor’s got a monkey on his back no matter where he goes......the Tea Party.
"Eric, I'm glad you came to the amnesty strategy meeting w/ Nancy and me."
At some point he drank the Obama kool-aid, so I’m glad he’s gone. But now will the district flip for the Dems?
Goober used the McCain strategy of going right for the primary but revealing his true colors in the general election campaign. Unfortunately, people bought it, as they did with McCain.
The Dems don't have a candidate. Brat will be opposed by a Green and a Libertarian in the general.
Consequently, there was no benefit to them turning out to vote for Brat.
No - it’s a very strong R district.
“The Dems don’t have a candidate.”
The Dems HAVE a candidate, a demonrat one!
They didn’t need to list his name on the primary ballot because the Dem party gave him their nomination in advance of the primary!
Good call Liz - you've got it...
“Because the district is so reliably Republican and Cantor being so powerful, the democrats did not even field a candidate: until Monday this week. His name is Jack Trammel, a professor from the same obscure liberal arts college a few miles off interstate 95.”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/06/11/1306086/-The-Coup-D-Etat-in-Virginia-s-7th-District#
He is their Dem candidate, the party gave him their nomination.
EDITED--Eric Cantor's Pollster Tries to Explain Why His Survey Showed Cantor Up 34 Points.
Ntl Journal By Shane Goldmacher, June 11, 2014
Less than a week before voters dumped the House majority leader, an internal poll for Cantor's campaign, trumpeted to the Washington Post, showed Cantor cruising to a 34-point victory in his primary. Instead, Cantor got crushed, losing by 10 percentage points. How did Cantor's pollster, veteran Republican survey-taker John McLaughlin, get the historic race so terribly wrong?
In an email to National Journal, McLaughlin, whose firm has been paid nearly $75,000 by Cantor's campaign since 2013, offered several explanations: unexpectedly high turnout, last-minute Democratic meddling, and stinging late attacks on amnesty and immigration. "Primary turnout was 45,000 2 years ago," McLaughlin wrote. "This time 65,000. This was an almost 50% increase in turnout."
Translation: McLaughlin's estimate of who was a "likely Republican" voter was way, way off the mark. But Cantor's total number of votes still shrunk, even as the total number of primary voters went up dramatically in 2014. He secured 37,369 primary votes in 2012 and less than 29,000 this year, with 100 percent of precincts reporting.
Meanwhile, McLaughin wrote that "attacks on immigration and amnesty charges from the right in last week hurt." Then McLaughlin cited the "Cooter" factor the fact that former Rep. Ben Jones, a Georgia Democrat who played Cooter in The Dukes of Hazzard, had written an open letter urging Democrats to vote for Brat to help beat Cantor.
"Over the weekend Democrats like Ben Jones and liberal media were driving their Democratic voters on the internet into the open primary," McLaughlin wrote. "Eric got hit from right and left. In our polls two weeks out Eric was stronger with Republicans at 70% of the vote, but running under 50% among non Republicans.""Untold story," McLaughlin continued, "is who were the new primary voters? They were probably not Republicans."
SOURCE http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/eric-cantor-s-pollster-tries-to-explain-why-his-survey-showed-cantor-up-34-points-20140611
Thanks for the update.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Is it conceivable that the "Cooter Factor" might be worth 20,000 more voters?
Ahhhhhh! Very nice.
The entire chattering class, the pundits...not one in 1,000 saw Cantor’s defeat coming..they couldn’t even entertain the idea. Yet in the 3 hours since the results were announced (9PM EST) they produced hundreds of articles explaining the meaning and significance of it, and how it would all hurt Republicans..
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