My central point is to show that the outcome could have been different in many, many ways, up until the breakout from Normandy.
Germany did make mistakes early in the war until they were unable to invade and knock out England. Then they invaded Russia with a wounded, but not yet out England. They had overwhelming victories in Russia early. If they had treated their occupied countries better and not had shooting squads and such, they might have garnered more support from the people of Eastern Europe and even Russia. It would have made the partisan effort earlier. But then again we are talking about a murderous dictatorship here.
Also, Stalin threated and countermanded his military leaders into making bad military decisions. As the war went on, his listened and gave more decision making to his generals, in which they made good decisions. Hitler, OTOH, did the opposite and usurped more and more decision making with very setback from his generals, forcing them into unattenable positions. By Stalingrad, Hitler was in effect reporting to himself 4 times.
When the Soviets learned through espionage that Japan was not going to declared war on them (of which they were supposed to do), they moved much needed men and supplies to defend Moscow (Vyazma) and repelled the Germans. And knowing that allowed them to concentrate on the Eastern Front. Still even after Stalingrad, the Germans were on the offensive until the summer of 1943 with the Battle of Kursk. At the same time, the Western Allies had secured North Africa and were landing on Sicily. NONE OF THESE ALLY victories were a sure thing, even in 1943. EVEYTHING WAS IN DOUBT. However, after these setbacks, the Axis only offered a few offensives.
Until D-Day in the West, or more even Operation Cobra, the breakout from Normandy, and the securing of France, could one say that the end was in sight. That now put immense pressure on Germany on the Western Front; in which their resources were needed in the East.
Germany's last offensive in the west, the Battle of the Bulge, could have changed things, but in this writer's opinion, they underestimated Ally resolve. And underestimated our Air Force, which would have pounded them into dust as soon as the snow storm cleared, much like the Falaise Gap.
So my best guess is by late 1943 and to mid 1944 did we have idea that we would be victorious.
Mind you, we still were waging a 2 front war, the other in the Pacific against Japan. Despite Midway and the Coral Sea wins, the long battle for Guadalcanal ended in the beggining of 1943, and our navy was now big enough to mount the upcoming island hopping campaigns. Again, up until 1943, Japan still occupied most of the Pacific.
I don’t think D Day happens anything like it happened….I don’t necessarily think Normandy would have been in play. Our strategy would have been far different from the get go.
As it was, it took some mistakes by Rommel and Hitler to allow D Day to work. Had they had all those other resources, it just simply could not have happened.
And then who knows what Stalin might have done. He would almost certainly have captured Japan.
“My central point is to show that the outcome could have been different in many, many ways, up until the breakout from Normandy.”
Actually, the fate of Germany was sealed before that, in frozen Stalingrad. The losses there were huge, and simply could not be replaced. Of more importance than that, was the effect it had on the German Allies, Hungary, Romania, and Italy.
The losses among the allied forces at Stalingrad represented almost the whole of Hungary and Romania’s militaries. the losses in men and material simply could not be replaced.
The Italian losses, which were pretty much everything and everyone they sent to Russia, were politically devastating for Mussolini.
The wipeout of the Southern Front, with no reserves available to stabilize it, before it became a rout, forced the withdrawal from the Caucuses, where the Germans were within eyesight of the Oil derricks, and the Caspian Sea.
Had the Germans withdrawn from Stalingrad before it became a quagmire, and consolidated, they may well have had the reserves to not only prevent Uranus, but to consolidate the Caucuses, and keep the allies in the war.