[wideawake]

Here's my theory, kristinn.

The real goal here was to set the stage for a "peace treaty" with the Taliban, whereby they would agree to participate in the Afghanistani government.

This would be a "diplomatic triumph" for the White House.

Bowe Bergdahl was just the screen to conceal the real chess move, a way to sell the Guantanamo release to the public.

That didn't work so well.

[plain talk]

I think that makes a lot of sense. I like it a lot. I had a companion theory as well -— I think Obama also wanted an excuse to release the baddest dudes at Gitmo and get that out of the way to make it easier later to later release the rest of the prisoners and close the place down

[justa-hairyape]

The problem with a Taliban Peace Treaty Deal, is normally you would release the Taliban Bad Guys after the Peace Deal is cemented. Not before. Now the Taliban have no reason to pursue peace.

That is sort of like giving Obama a Nobel Peace Prize before he launched air strikes on Libya, promoted a coup in Egypt, armed and funded rebels in the Syrian Civil War and promoted the coup in the Ukraine.

[a fool in paradise]

The real goal here was to set the stage for a "peace treaty" with the Taliban, whereby they would agree to participate in the Afghanistani government. This would be a "diplomatic triumph" for the White House. Bowe Bergdahl was just the screen to conceal the real chess move, a way to sell the Guantanamo release to the public.

Yep. And things are being fasttracked. One White House leak said that it is better to have this blowback now rather than in "6 months" as deals are finalized. Six months out are around the time of the mid-term election.

He's pushing for another "Obama Got Osama" moment to rally his base to the polls ("Obama ENDED the war..."). Releasing the rest of the detainees at Gitmo is probably part of the negotiation.