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You miss my underlying point on all this: There is no other place like the Bakken in this country.

No other place has as large a % of its extent truly commercial. Maybe up to 50%.

Eagleford? Maybe 10% as only a very tiny window, albeit long, holds commerciality.

The tough thing is to extract liquids from such poor quality rock. Just won’t flow.

Now gas is something else. It will flow and flow well if properly completed.

Our abundance is not in oil, it is in gas.

I work the Bakken and have 41 years analyzing reservoirs as a reservoir engineer.

You miss my underlying point on all this: There is no other place like the Bakken in this country.

No other place has as large a % of its extent truly commercial. Maybe up to 50%.

I work the Bakken and have 41 years analyzing reservoirs as a reservoir engineer.
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bestintxas
I just enjoy research online. So I’m just looking at letters and numbers and not the real thing. So I’ll defer to your opinion on these matters.

My understanding of the reservoirs is that what we’re talking about is the difference between oil in place and addressable oil. I’ve heard that the Baaken has maybe has maybe +-450 billion barrels of oil in place of which less than 10% is addressable oil or 25-30 billion barrels.

This is the way that fool.com puts it as of 5/5/2014:
“No one knows exactly how much oil is soaking the rocks underneath North Dakota and Montana. Estimates range from 150 billion barrels of oil to as much as 900 billion barrels of oil, according to Continental Resources. Given current technology, the industry won’t recover more than a low-single-digit percentage of that oil. Continental Resources estimates that current technology will allow the industry to recover about 3.5% of its oil estimate, or about 32 billion barrels of oil. “http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/05/the-bakken-shale-hits-a-billion-how-much-more-is-l.aspx

Is your contention that 50% of that 150-900 billion or lets split the difference and say 450 billion barrels is addressable oil—using the new innovations that continental is coming up with? So that we’re not talking about 30 or even 45 billion barrels of addressable oil in the bakken but rather over 200 billion barrels of addressable oil in the bakken. That really when continental talks about their oil production rising fast as a result of their new techniques —they’re talking about a fast rise over the next couple of quarters—maybe even the next couple years. That’s how significant their new innovations are.

This is the way that fool.com puts it in the same article.

“However, new technology could push the ultimate recovery of oil higher. In fact, an improvement in the recovery factor to 5% means the industry could eventually extract as many as 45 billion barrels of oil. Still, that recovery factor is well below the average of conventional oil reservoirs, which typically give up about 10% of the original oil in place through the primary recovery method, which is typically adding a pump to pull oil out of the reservoir. After that, a secondary recovery method of injecting water or gas can result in the recovery of 20% to 40% of the original oil in place. Finally, a third method, enhanced oil recovery, can ultimately push out 30% to 60% of the oil once trapped below the ground There’s thus tremendous future potential for the Bakken. “
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/05/the-bakken-shale-hits-a-billion-how-much-more-is-l.aspx