If you assume a conservative average of just 300,000 total barrels per well, the ultimate recovery from the Bakken could be 30 billion barrels. The U.S. uses 7.5 billion barrels per year. “Suddenly, you see the enormity of what we’re talking about here,” says Hamm.
The risk, of course, is that if these wells can’t churn out that kind of output,
...............
I believe Hamm can do what he says he can do. That the numbers are what he says they are. There for the risk imho is that the price of oil will collapse. I don’t think that will happen in the next couple years because demand around the world is so strong, many oil fields around the world are old and in decline, fracking is difficult so the technology and infrastructure won’t jump to other countries for a couple years. So american frackers will have a free hand to increase US oil production for another 4-5 years. but somewhere +-2020—overseas oil producers will get the hang of fracking oil and volumes will go up worldwide—plus natural gas houses trains trucks and buses plus electric cars will finally clip demand enough to force down prices. Then for the next two decades there will be a steady crushing pressure on the price of oil. Luckily the first frackers to be taken out will be the overseas frackers who won’t be nearly as good as the likes of continental eog devon apache et al.
On a thread yesterday concerning Chinese fracking, I sent you a link to a story about CNOC's purchase of high-tech automated German rigs that only require four personnel. This makes no sense economically, since their wage rates are one-third of ours. Plus the capex is much greater, double perhaps. What it flags to me, however, is the desperation of the Chinese to develop their unconventional resources, along with their inability to get technology transfer from their JV partners Chevron, etc. The majors are wise to the Chinese brain suck. Your five year estimate sounds right.