EIA raises US oil forecasts for 2014-2015

abo.net ^ | May 13, 2014 | Lina Roger

[ckilmer]

EIA raises US oil forecasts for 2014-2015

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its estimates for U.S. oil production this year and next thanks to higher than expected production in the Gulf of Mexico

• COMMENTS( 0 )

In 2015, the United States will record its highest production since 1972. In its short term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the country will produce 8.46 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2014, compared to 8.37 million barrels a day in the April forecast. For next year, the EIA estimates production of 9.24 million barrels a day of oil, up from 9.13 million barrels a day in previous forecasts. In 2013 the country produced 7.45 million barrels a day. The highest level of production in the United States (9.6 million barrels a day) was reached in 1970. The higher production estimated by the EIA is mainly due to higher expected production in the Gulf of Mexico, as new wells started production in February, which was earlier than expected, said the EIA . Higher U.S. production will also affect prices of WTI, which will reach $96.59 per barrel this year. The future of WTI with expiry in June is currently trading at $100 per barrel, while Brent oil expiring in July is priced at $107 per barrel.

 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration also raised its estimates for U.S. oil consumption that will total 18.92 million barrels a day this year, compared to 18.9 million barrels a day this year in the previous forecasts and 18.99 million barrels a day the next. Globally, production trends are decreasing. The EIA lowered its forecasts for world supply growth of oil and petroleum products. The agency said it expects global supplies to rise from 90.4 million barrels a day in 2013 to 91.58 million barrels a day in 2014 and 92.83 million barrels a day in 2015. Last month, the EIA said supplies would total 91.78 million barrels a day this year and 93.09 million barrels a day next year. The EIA also lowered its forecasts for global oil consumption to 91.56 million barrels a day this year and 92.80 million barrels a day next year, compared to 91.61 million barrels a day in 2014 and 92.97 million barrels a day in 2015 in previous estimates.

 

The difference trend between U.S. production and global production is explained by the shale revolution that the U.S. is currently experiencing. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques have enabled energy producers to tap into supplies trapped in shale oil fields. Consequently, production has increased, reducing prices for consumers. The shale boom is also impacting U.S. trade, with exports expected to increase. The EIA lowered its forecast for net imports of oil and oil products. The agency said it estimates imports to account for 23 percent of total U.S. petroleum product consumption by 2015, down from a peak of more than 60 percent in 2005.The 2015 projected level would be the lowest since 1970. The agency expects net imports to decline from 6.22 million barrels a day last year to 5.29 million barrels a day this year and 4.42 million barrels a day in 2015. Last month, the agency said it expected net imports to total 5.41 million barrels a day in 2014 and 4.63 million barrels a day in 2015.

[ckilmer]

the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the country will produce 8.46 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2014, compared to 8.37 million barrels a day in the April forecast. For next year, the EIA estimates production of 9.24 million barrels a day of oil, up from 9.13 million barrels a day in previous forecasts.
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I thought the EIA had figured in industry estimates of rising oil production in the gulf of mexico. but maybe not.

[Ken522]

In 2015, the United States will record its highest production since 1972

... so gasoline will drop below $1 a gallon?? Sure ...

[nascarnation]

I hope not...we’d have poor people crowding the streets...

[ckilmer]

Unlike natural gas for which prices are set locally, oil prices are set world wide. Worldwide demand for oil is rising while US production increases are just offsetting production declines in other parts of the world. It will be 5 years or so before any other countries can bring on volume oil increases byo fracking. So likely oil prices will stay high for the next couple years.

the killer apps however are houses trains trucks and buses converted over to natural has —plus electric cars. These somewhere out 5-10 years from now —will kill demand for oil and oil prices will fall below 2 dollars a gallon.

[nascarnation]

Great for the economy but terrible for road congestion.

[SierraWasp]

How does your comment and projection square with this in the article?

"Consequently, production has increased, reducing prices for consumers."

My price somewhere in the I-80 corridor between Sacramento and Reno ain't "reducing!" What's up with that?

[SierraWasp]

So widen the choke points and create more alternative short cuts. Build bridges and tunnels and quit accepting the idea that it would be a sin to expand transportation corridors or to not live in clogged metro core areas with high crime, Liberal stupidity and heavy expenses like parking, etc.

EnvironMentalism has cowed the thinking of abundant resources by so many in our institutions of indoctrination that it's getting exciting whenever anyone even thinks positive about the future at all. I guess all we should be thinking about is Saint John's "New Earth" in Revelation, right?

That's what I'm beginning to think whenever I encounter thoughs like you just expressed. (grin)

[ckilmer]

My price somewhere in the I-80 corridor between Sacramento and Reno ain’t “reducing!” What’s up with that?

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The article is wrong about prices at the pump. They have not gone down anywhere for anyone and won’t go down anytime soon. Because unlike natural gas where prices are set by local supply and demand—oil prices are set by global supply and demand. (its easier to move around oil around the globe than it is natural gas.)

While US oil production is up—other oil suppliers around the globe face diminished production — and global demand is rising steadily.

Likely oil prices will stay high until a couple more countries learn how to frack which will be a couple of years. (I figure five years but it could be less.)

[nascarnation]

One of our big problems (at least here in the midwest) is that we’re unable to maintain the road/bridge/etc infrastructure we have in place currently.

Mostly because the budgets are robbed to take care of the entitlement army.

[thackney]

EIA has increased its Gulf of Mexico crude oil production forecast as new wells in the Mars field began producing ahead of schedule in February 2014. The Olympus platform and Mars B infrastructure, owned by Shell and BP, is the first major expansion of the Mars field. Mars B production is expected to reach 100,000 bbl/d in 2015. Although the peak production levels have not changed, earlier reports indicated that the Mars B system would begin producing in late 2014 or early 2015. U.S. federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production, which has fallen for four consecutive years, is projected to increase by 150,000 bbl/d in 2014 and by an additional 240,000 bbl/d in 2015.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm
May 6, 2014

[thackney]

Led by falling crude oil prices, the projected U.S. annual average regular gasoline retail price, which fell from $3.63/gal in 2012 to an average of $3.51/gal in 2013, will continue to fall to $3.48/gal in 2014 and $3.39 in 2015.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm

U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

[SierraWasp]

Ya but… I want the Jan “09 price when the resentful radical was immaculated!!!