MAP: How Ukraine and Russia are moving toward war

The Washington Post ^ | May 2, 2014 | ADAM TAYLOR AND GENE THORP

[MinorityRepublican]

With Ukrainian troops launching a major assault on a rebel stronghold Friday, just a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Kiev to withdraw its troops from the east and south of the country, it looks like the Ukraine crisis is entering a new stage.

As The Post's Michael Birnbaum reported from Moscow, "it seemed possible that even a small spark could ignite a tinderbox regional conflict."

Given this escalation, The Washington Post is publishing a new map that shows, using information from the Royal United Services Institute and our own analysis, recent troop movements in the region. The graphic illustrates how military exercises conducted by Russia have left a big build-up of troops on Ukraine's border. It also shows Ukraine's own military moves to its borders with Russia and Moldova's Russian-dominated enclave, Transnistria.

It'd be wrong to assume that military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable: There remains plenty of hope that a diplomatic solution can be found. That said, the graphic provides an important look at the military reality of the crisis.

[buwaya]

The forces shown are very small.
I doubt there will be a “serious” war, because in order for that to happen Russia would have to mobilize.
Very likely that Ukraine will lose the Donetsk one way or another though.

[cmj328]

China wins when Russia and Europe fight.

[jtal]

won’t be much of a contest.

[wetphoenix]

I guess it is a plan. As for now China is a major beneficiary of US game against Russia in Central Asia. America has just enough power to undermine Russian influence but not to hold a ground there.
Just wait until the Chinese has a land bridge to Middle East oil.

[Mariner]

Fascinating.

They're saying Russia can only bring 45,000 combat troops to the fight (92k total).

Can Ukraine field even 45k combat troops?

[Steven Tyler]

Nothing will happen till the ground dries up and the soil can support tanks

[ansel12]

UKRAINE! LEAVE RUSSIA ALONE, YOU BIG BULLY!

[JimSEA]

They’ve had the “small spark” now it’s up yo Putin.

[melsec]

I’m more interested to learn whether there are any NATO forces on the ground in Ukraine. I am aware that the USA put some 600 people into a training exercise - (bad idea - either put in a major force or don’t bother) but does NATO/UN have any skin in this game or are they taking the French option?

[wetphoenix]

There was a strong USMC presence in Georgia in 2008.
None was hurt as far as I know.

[Sequoyah101]

Brigades against Divisions

Short war.

Stay away.

[melsec]

As an outsider (Aussie) I am interested in what your take is on putting American boys and girls in harms way in this thing. My opinion (for what it is worth) is that this is a Euro conflict and should be left for them to sort out. The EU will jump up and down and make noise and demands but until they are willing to commit NATO troops does anyone take them seriously? That said I wouldn’t object to the US taking up a position with a couple of carriers just flexing it’s biceps. My concern is that some loose cannon on the Russian side shoots a couple of Americans and then what do you do - a response is a must but it makes escalation a certainty.

Thanks

Mel

[Zhang Fei]

China wins when Russia and Europe fight.

So maybe Russia should worry about the Chinese threat and place its entire military on the Chinese border instead of invading and annexing Ukraine.

[UCANSEE2]

[Zhang Fei]

won’t be much of a contest.

Iraq wasn't much of a contest. We couldn't take the steady drip-drip-drip of casualties, so we left:

ear	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2003	0	0	92	80	42	36	49	43	33	47	110	48	580
2004	52	23	52	140	84	50	58	75	87	68	141	76	906
2005	127	60	39	52	88	83	58	85	52	99	86	68	897
2006	64	58	34	82	79	63	46	66	77	111	78	115	873
2007	86	85	82	117	131	108	89	88	70	40	40	25	961
2008	40	30	40	52	21	31	13	23	25	14	17	16	322
2009	16	18	9	19	25	15	8	7	10	9	11	3	150
2010	6	6	7	8	6	8	4	3	7	2	2	1	60
2011	6	3	2	11	2	15	5	0	4	4	2	0	54
2012	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

[Zhang Fei]

My concern is that some loose cannon on the Russian side shoots a couple of Americans and then what do you do - a response is a must but it makes escalation a certainty.

There is no such animal as an accidental war. All escalations are planned. War isn't like a street fight - it doesn't just happen. Supplies and military units have to be moved up, money has to be allocated and so on. The North Koreans hacked up a couple of GI's in the DMZ and nothing happened in response. They took the USS Pueblo and the response was bupkis. The Khmer Rouge took the USS Mayaguez and the US response was limited to attempting a rescue mission. The USS Panay was deliberately attacked and sunk by the Japanese in 1937. It wasn't until Pearl Harbor, 4 years later, that the US declared war on Japan.

[melsec]

Thanks for that reply - what do you think - is there anyway Obama would consider drawing a line that he will actually stand by or has he learnt his lesson on that?

[wetphoenix]

Some long dead white folks has warned against exactly such an involvement in European affairs.

[okie01]

That said I wouldn’t object to the US taking up a position with a couple of carriers just flexing it’s biceps.

"Power projection" with A/C isn't really feasible in this case.

We couldn't get them into the Black Sea without Turkish approval -- which wouldn't be forthcoming. Nor would we necessarily want to risk an A/C in those enclosed waters.

Personally, I believe this is a "hide and watch" moment. Frankly, we're not in a position to do much for the Ukrainians -- and, even if we were, I wouldn't trust Obama to be the man to make the requisite decisions.