http://www.agprofessional.com/news/El-Nino-is-back-Maybe-so-248872131.html
On Thursday, federal forecasters issued an “El Niño watch,” indicating a 50 percent chance El Niño will develop this summer or fall.
However, El Niño’s return isn’t guaranteed.
“While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall,” The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration said in their announcement. “If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely.”...
“... a 50 percent chance ...”
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Coin toss?