This area is also being monitored for an upgrade to a High Risk...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1141 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.UPDATE......SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...
.UPDATE...NOT MANY UPDATES MADE TO GOING FORECAST AS SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE STRONG AND POSSIBLY
LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. CAUTION IS HIGHLY ADVISED FOR
THIS POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING AND DANGEROUS SITUATION.
.DISCUSSION...INITIAL LEAD S/WV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS ACTIVELY
IS LIFTING NE AWAY FROM THE REGION RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND OF
THAT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, A CYCLONICALLY CURVED H5-H3 JET STREAK IS
OBSERVED ON WV CHANNELS...REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES AND IN NWP
SURGING INTO THE NW DELTA AND THE ARKLAMISS AT THIS HOUR. THIS
SIGNATURE COUPLED WITH NEAR 2000 J/KG SBCAPE IS ALREADY INITIALIZING
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION WITH THE THIS NEXT AND MORE POTENT ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. 0-1 KM ESRH REMAINS NEAR
200M2/S2 PER MESOANALYSIS AS OF 16Z BUT NWP SUITE SUGGESTS STEADILY
INCREASING LOW LVL SHEAR VALUES TOWARDS 300M2/S2 AND POSSIBLY HIGHER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN AND EVENING WHERE WORRISOME 0-1 KM EHI AND
STRONG TORNADO PARAMETERS VALUES INDICATE HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING SOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG TRACK TORNADOES. SPC SSEO
UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT GREATEST RISK FOR THESE
TORNADOES COULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EXTENDING ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE JACKSON
METROPLEX MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COUPLE OF ROUGE
STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-20 AND WITH LESS COMPETITION FOR
RESOURCES AND POTENTIALLY NON-BLOCKED INFLOW COULD BE TROUBLESOME.
THE TRENDS OF LOCAL WRF AND THE HRRR ECHO SPC SSEO HELICITY SIGNALS
THAT WHAT SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR JACKSON FOR MID AFTN
SUGGEST 0-3 SRH VALUES NEAR 500 M2/S2 WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT LIKELY IN
PLACE ALONG THE TRACE CORRIDOR. GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS HIGHER RISK AREA.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/