Putin is focused on the military viability of Russia.
According to their doctrines in that area, unchallenged control of the Black Sea ports is essential.
As in not optional.
As in Russia could fall to outside armies without this.
People who studied Soviet Doctrine during the cold war predicted this turn of events months ago as the European Union pushed Ukraine for exclusive trade agreements. I was one. Have another “I told you so.” Its free.
Yes, this is a topic that most people (even a great number of military people) do not have the training and the experience to comprehend. Hard to debate a topic beyond one’s scope. None the less, Putin understands,
and he is making the textbook response to the European Union’s moves towards bringing Ukraine into their sphere.
This is not about Putin’s ego.
The Russians would be responding in the same way no matter who was in charge.
Ukraine as an independent buffer state = okay.
Ukraine moving to allign with the European Union = not okay.
Now, there are in this mess people who want to see realistic chances for peace and an independent Ukraine. But they demand that the European Union back off entirely as well.
So here is my point to you:
Yes it would be a better world if Ukraine is free. No, people who are critical of the Russians alone aren’t helping bring that about.
Because there are exactly two ways the Crimean region winds up not part of Russia. Count them.
1. Ukraine remains an entirely independent buffer state not alligned to the western European hegemony.
2. Russia loses an all out war, and all her armies, nuclear weapons, biological horrors, assassins, missiles, etc... have been expended and were not enough.
Those are it.
There is no third way.
And it’s not like Putin is Stalin who could simply murder away his opposition.
He knows if he’d let Crimea go, he would be thrown out of office faster than you could say “Brezhnev Doctrine.”
Well put. I couldn’t agree more.
No, Sevastopol is not necessary for Russia’s defense. Russia is not under any threat of invasion from any outside armies, nor would losing Crimea affect their military posture to any great degree. Russia is bottled up in the Black Sea by the Turks. Russia’s naval power is focused in the Pacific Ocean. Crimea is a sideshow. This is not about strategy, it is about symbolism. Putin wants to pretend that Russia is still great like in Czarist times, but he can’t admit than the EVIL EMPIRE he loyally served destroyed Russia’s greatness forever. Many, many more Russians must die because of Putin’s insane dreams of empire. Putin’s nukes didn’t save his beloved EVIL EMPIRE, and they won’t save the smaller weaker Neo-Soviet Russia either. Terrorist Russia threatens the world, so it is Russia which must be broken up unto buffer states, not Ukraine.
