The unstated assumption is that there were just as many evangelicals in 2012 as there were in 2008. What if the problem wasn't that they didn't come out to vote, but that there were fewer evangelicals overall?
How much confidence to I have in random sampling surveys? A fair amount.
They are the surveys that detailed the votes that Romney threw away.
Anecdotally, I know of those who didn’t vote. With each one it was gay issues and pro-life issues. The standard comment: no better than a liberal.