That's why I hate making predictions or even comment on things As they develop, because there's too much information to process, or not enough of it, so it's very likely that people get it wrong. Hindsight is 20-20, right?
The best we can do is as you inferred....watch, gather info and wait and see.....the fog of war is thick and the parties on the ground confused....meaning the average Ukrainian.
Besides, there’s more than one war....you have the Communist opposing the Neo-Nazi’e....you have Kiev Gov. trying to be independant but having to war with the Eu and US over how they want the country to go. You have the Rada fighting Solvoda and others amid them...you have people on the street fighting because they like to fight and need no reason to do so. And in this fray is Russia’s intentions which nobody knows at this point what they will do.
IMO thus far...Russia’s winning this....and I tend to think he’ll ultimately get the east and possibly the south....he can’t afford to take on all Ukraine...nobody can.